Andrei Arlovski vs Ben Rothwell
I have to favor Arlovski outright here. Rothwell isn’t nothing too special outside of power in his hands – which is more than enough to knockout Arlovski. If Arlovski can play it safe and avoid the power of Rothwell, then he can out-strike the slower heavyweight en-route to a decision victory. It is heavyweight so it doesn’t take much for anyone to be knocked out in the division, but I think Arlovski has the tools to get a decision victory here.
Prop: Andrei Arlovski wins by decision (+325)
Alex Hernandez vs. Francisco Trinaldo
Coming off his second and biggest learning experience of a loss, I believe Alex Hernandez will bounce back here against an aging and slower fighter in Francisco Trinaldo. Hernandez blasted through Dariush and Aubin-Mercier, then suffered a TKO loss to Donald Cerrone. I believe people are simply putting too much into that loss and incorporating it into this fight. Cerrone had all the tools and skills to defeat Hernandez and I simply don’t think Trinaldo will be able to fend off all of the takedowns and pressure coupled with his speed to slowdown the ever-improving 26-year old.
Prop: Alex Hernandez wins by decision (+168)
Dan Hooker vs James Vick
We must continue the trend of #FadeJamesVick – Simply put that he isn’t that good. He has got some good wins, but he isn’t anything special. Dan Hooker is returning from a hellacious beating at the hands of Edson Barboza, but he should bounce back here with a good finish over Vick. His hands are better and so is his chin. I believe he will get the best of Vick here with a TKO win. Right now, I’m handing out Hooker ITD but the TKO prop line will be better so you could wait for that too.
Prop: Dan Hooker wins by inside the distance (+150) (Can also wait for TKO for better value as it is his likeliest outcome)
Greg Hardy vs Juan Adams
I think Greg Hardy has to lose an MMA fight eventually in due time. He is a tremendous athlete that transferred into the world of cage fighting from the NFL as a tremendous pass-rusher known from his stint with the Carolina Panthers. He has speed, power, and just raw strength. The only thing lacking right now is experience and just the growing and learning factor that comes with MMA. I’m not sure if it’ll be this weekend that he loses or not, but the value on Juan Adams by decision sticks out to me. If he can withstand and avoid most of the power from Hardy early on and turn this into a dogfight, then perhaps he can outpoint and out-strike Hardy to a sloppy and tiresome decision. Adams is very green in MMA as well, so it is a tough fight to call. I’ll still lean Hardy by (T)KO but Adams by decision isn’t a terrible stab, I think.
Prop: Juan Adams by decision (+605)
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