UFC Fight Night 151 takes place Saturday, May 4 at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the betting odds for the full card, and here they are.
UFC Fight Night 151 Opening Odds
Al Iaquinta -135
Donald Cerrone -105
Derek Brunson -120
Elias Theodorou -120
Brad Katona -230
Merab Dvalishvili +170
Juan Adams -130
Arjan Bhullar -110
Marc-Andre Barriault -155
Andrew Sanchez +115
Cub Swanson -175
Shane Burgos +135
Mitch Gagnon -140
Cole Smith +100
Aiemann Zahabi -215
Vince Morales +165
Matt Sayles -135
Kyle Nelson -105
Kyle Prepolec -135
Nordine Taleb -105
Macy Chiasson -300
Sarah Moras +220
Walt Harris -155
Sergey Spivak +115
And here are my initial thoughts on the UFC Fight Night 151 Opening Odds:
- The main event between Iaquinta and Cerrone should be a “Fight of the Night” candidate, but I like Iaquinta here and the odds seem pretty good for a bet on him. As good as Cerrone looked in his return to lightweight against Alexander Hernandez, he’s still a 35-year-old warrior who has taken quite a bit of damage throughout his career. Iaquinta is coming off of a huge upset win over Kevin Lee where his striking attack looked sharp and his takedown defense held up, and if he can replicate a sprawl-and-brawl gameplan he has a good chance to beat Cerrone. If Cerrone can get the fight to the ground he’ll have the advantage there with his submission ability, but Iaquinta has been really hard to take down lately and his boxing has never looked better. At the opening odds I think you have to lean Iaquinta.
- The co-main event is a Pick ’em between Brunson and Theodorou, and I lean slightly towards the Canadian in this one. Brunson has been very hittable and reckless in his last couple of fights, and although Theodorou isn’t known for his knockout power he is very good at creating a gameplan and following to it. Brunson has power but Theodorou has a great chin and is hard to put away. He also has the edge in cardio which should help him if Brunson can’t get an early finish. Brunson is a good test for Theodorou, but at a Pick ’em price I think you have to go with the Canuck here.
- Elsewhere on the main card I think Burgos has a good chance to upset Swanson, who appears to be on a steep decline in his career. Swanson just doesn’t seem to have it anymore while Burgos is an up-and-coming fighter with a great opportunity to jump into the rankings with a win. Fading Swanson and taking Burgos at plus money seems like a good play here.
- On the prelims it’s worth taking a look at Taleb as he’s an underdog against the UFC newcomer Prepolec, who took the fight on very short notice. Prepolec is coming off of a win over Cody Pfister on the regional scene which really doesn’t say much, so even though Taleb is on a losing skid at least he’s been fighting top competition in the Octagon. I actually thought Taleb would have been the favorite, so there’s value on him as a dog.
- Elsewhere on the prelims, I’d also take a long, hard look at Spivak as a dog. Harris is someone who needs to be faded in almost every fight and that’s certainly the case here against a young prospect in Spivak who has a lot of knockout power. Fade Harris and take the dog here.
