UFC 232 takes place December 29 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened the full odds for the card, and here they are.
UFC 232 Opening Odds
Jon Jones -190
Alexander Gustafsson +150
Cris Cyborg -280
Amanda Nunes +200
Michael Chiesa -165
Carlos Condit +135
Ilir Latifi -180
Corey Anderson +150
Chad Mendes -130
Alexander Volkanovski -110
Walt Harris -195
Andrei Arlovski +160
Cat Zingano -140
Megan Anderson +110
Petr Yan -250
Douglas Silva de Andrade +190
Ryan Hall -290
BJ Penn +230
Nathaniel Wood -210
Andre Ewell +160
Uriah Hall -135
Bevon Lewis +105
Curtis Millender -215
Siyar Bahadurzada +170
Montel Jackson -150
Brian Kelleher +110
And here are my initial reactions to the opening odds:
– The main event between Jones and Gustafsson is my most-anticipated bout of 2018. I can’t wait for this fight, and believe it could match the pair’s first fight at UFC 165, which was an absolute classic. Jones won that fight, but Gustafsson gave him the toughest fight of his career. I expect this rematch to be competitive as well, but I still lean Jones to get his hand raised again. Even though he’s been out a while with his USADA suspension, I truly believe Jones when he says he’s in the best shape of his life for this fight. Gustafsson is great, and it wouldn’t shock me if he did beat Jones, but I think the former champ gets his belt back, and the -190 opening odds seem pretty fair.
– The co-main event has more upset potential as far as I’m concerned. Cyborg and Nunes are both amazing fighters and the woman who wins will have a good argument to being the greatest female MMA fighter ever. Cyborg deserves to be the favorite since the bout is at featherweight and she’s been nothing but dominant in the UFC, but Nunes has looked incredible as well and is one of the few fighters who has the legitiamte KO power needed to be a threat to Cyborg. I agree that Cyborg should be favored, but I’d say there might be a bit of value in Nunes at the opening -200 number.
– The Chiesa vs. Condit fight has upset written all over it. All of us are writing Condit off as a shot fighter, but Chiesa hasn’t looked great in his last couple of fights and has no experience fighting at welterweight. Condit’s losses have mostly come to elite talent and perhaps it’s not fair to completely write him off just yet. To me this is a clear dog-or-pass situation and I would rather take Condit at +135.
– Some of the other favorites who should be able to win are: Petr Yan over Douglas Silva de Andrade, Curtis Millender over Siyar Bahadurzada, and Nathaniel Wood over Andre Ewell. There are quite a few big favorites on this card but I actually see there being quite a bit of upset potential on this card, and would caution against blindly throwing the favorites into a parlay.
– Some of the underdogs I have my eye on are: Bevon Lewis over Uriah Hall, BJ Penn over Ryan Hall, and Brian Kelleher over Montel Jackson. There are also a number of other fights I could see ending in an upset. This card has upset city written all over it, in my opinion.
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