Big Marley’s UFC 231 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 title fights in Toronto, Canada. We are back to having PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are some solid GPPs to chase this week. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favorite contests to chase so I will be taking some shots at that. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in cash games. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the easiest cash game punt of all time at $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Decision is currently -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ with the striking volume she puts out then we have a solid floor there and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At that price tag she allows you to pay up for some heavy favorites and if we can get 4 other spots to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ in our lineup then we will be sitting very pretty in our cash games this weekend.
GPP play of the week – Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is currently lined at -495 for this fight. The most likely outcome is that somebody in this fight gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes at least one 10-point knock down. If that can be in the 1st round, then you are already at 100-points even if it is just the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that is more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is the favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so he can’t have much time in the game left. I think we role with the favorite here and throw him into our GPP lineups and wait for the fireworks.
Underdog play of the week – Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week because of his wrestling/grappling potential. I also think he is a live underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is really what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of the two but he has never knocked anybody out, so I think we have a solid floor here at $7.3k even if this fight does stay standing because I don’t see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of the two though and I think he lands multiple takedowns in this fight and can win a decision with a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57% accuracy, and if he is getting pieced up on the feet I am sure he will be going for even more than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a solid play in all formats and I think he gets a split decision win here as the road underdog.
Fade of the week – Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a few fighters this week personally, but the person I never even considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I don’t think she can win, because she for sure can, and I think she does. But I do not see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I think we would need a finish from her in this fight to get 10x that salary and I think that is very unlikely to happen. Or, she will need FightMetric to count all of her screams as significant strikes. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her career is 83 DK points and that was against Irene Aldana who sets a much higher pace than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here then that still wouldn’t be enough here to put her in the winning lineup at her $8.7k price tag. I think if you are making 20 or less lineups this Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and if she gets a win it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below: