UFC 163 HSBC Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Saturday, August 3, 2013 UFC Featherweight Championship Bout: Jose Aldo (-750) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+600) Fight Breakdown: The main event of UFC 163 is a five-round bout for the UFC featherweight championship between reigning champ Jose Aldo and challenger “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung. Aldo is currently a massive favorite at -750 (bet $750 to win $100), while Jung is a big +600 underdog at Several Bookmakers. Aldo (22-1) is the long-time UFC featherweight champion, having defended the belt he first won at WEC 44 a total of six times, four times in the UFC (over Frankie Edgar, Chad Mendes, Kenny Florian and Mark Hominick) and twice in the WEC as well (over Urijah Faber and Manny Gamburyan). The 26-year-old is an incredible striker, easily the best at 145 pounds and maybe the best in the world, as he’s able to use a dazzling combination of strikes from all eight limbs to put his opponents to sleep, and he has 13 career knockouts to show for it. He also has impeccable takedown defense. Currently riding a 15-fight win streak, Aldo hasn’t really been challenged by any of his competitors outside of Hominick in the fifth round of their UFC 129 bout, and considering he seems to be improving from bout to bout, he’s a scary, scary man. Fighting in front of his hometown fans this weekend, Aldo wants a knockout of Jung. And he’s likely to get it. Jung (13-3) is currently riding a three-fight win streak in the UFC, with a “Fight of the Year” and “Submission of the Year” win over Dustin Poirier at UFC on FUEL TV 3, a “Knockout of the Night” win over Hominick at UFC 129, and another “Submission of the Year” over Leonard Garcia at UFC Fight Night 24. The 26-year-old is rapidly improving and with knockout power in his hands, fantastic submissions, and the ability to walk forward and be aggressive, he’s been a tough out for other featherweights in the UFC. But before he came to the UFC he lost a war with Garcia and was knocked out by George Roop, so it’s possible he’s been overachieving in the Octagon. As well, Jung took this fight with Aldo on short notice after Anthony Pettis pulled out of the fight with an injury. Having not fought since May of 2012, he’ll likely exhibit signs of ring rust against Aldo. Against Aldo, you can’t make a single mistake. So unless he fights a flawless fight, Jung is in trouble. Fight Prediction: Outside of a fluke punch, I just don’t see how The Korean Zombie wins this fight. Aldo is one of the most devastating strikers in all of mixed martial arts and going up against a guy like Jung who typically offers up little to no defense in his fights. This one has all the makings of a highlight-reel knockout. Whether it’s by punches, elbows, kicks, knees, or maybe even of a combination of all of them. Aldo is going to win this fight, and he’s going to win it by knockout to once again defend the UFC featherweight championship and re-affirm his place as one of the pound-for-pound greats in the sport. Adam’s Pick: Jose Aldo via T/KO (click for latest MMA odds) Adam’s Recommended Play: With the moneyline on Aldo being so high, I believe the best way to attack this fight from a betting perspective is with props. My colleague Luca Fury recommended a bet on Aldo by TKO (currently -170), but personally I would play it safer and just go with Aldo wins inside the distance (currently -250) in case of a submission or DQ win for Aldo. Better yet, in case you want to play it super safe, go with the fight doesn’t go the distance prop, which is currently -400, or the total of UNDER 3.5 rounds, which is currently -220, just in case there’s a fluke finish by Jung.
