TUF 28 Finale Opening Odds Reactions


The TUF 28 Finale takes place Friday, November 30 at Pearl Theatre at Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the complete odds for the card, and here they are.




TUF 28 Finale Opening Odds

Kamaru Usman -215
Rafael dos Anjos +165

Bryan Caraway -275
Pedro Munhoz +195

Antonina Shevchenko -385
Ji Yeon Kim +265

Joseph Benavidez -195
Alex Perez +155

Kevin Aguilar -165
Rick Glenn +125

Edmen Shahbazyan -130
Darren Stewart -110

Tim Means -185
Ricky Rainey +145

Roosevelt Roberts -185
Darrell Horcher +145

Justin Frazier -170
Juan Espino +130

Raoni Barcelos -245
Chris Gutierrez +175

Pannie Kianzad -215
Macy Chiasson +175

Maurice Greene -185
Michel Batista +145

Leah Letson -245
Julia Stoliarenko +175

And here are my initial reactions on the odds:

- The main event between Usman and RDA should be a tremendous fight. Usman has looked amazing in the Octagon with eight straight wins and in his last fight he dominated Demian Maia. He should be fighting for the belt but the UFC passed him up in favor of Darren Till and now Colby Covington. He now needs to beat RDA to get his ninth straght win and hope the UFC at that point can't ignore his run. But RDA won't be a walkover. Yes, he did lose a close fight against Covington for the belt, but he looked amazing in his three welterweight bouts before that. RDA is in my opinion the most well-rounded opponent Usman has fought to date and this is going to be a competitive fight. Usman deserves to be the favorite based on his dominant wrestling and his win streak, but I wouldn't write RDA off completely here.

- The opening line between Caraway and Munhoz looks like it was completely off. Caraway for some reason opened up as the favorite despite having barely fought the last few years and not having looked very good when he has competed. Munhoz, on the other hand, has remained very active and has shown he's just a step below the top bantamweights in the UFC. Munhoz should have opened as the favorite and it's no surprise that bettors have flipped the line since open.

- There's a couple of fights that look like mismatches on this card. Shevchenko is a huge favorite over Kim and she should absolutely win that fight. Means should also be able to get by Rainey, and Barcelos should be a winner in his fight with Gutierrez. I'd expect the lines on those three favorites to grow as we get closer to fight day.

- For an underdog, I would take a look at Glenn over Aguilar. Glenn has more experience fighting a higher level of competition in the UFC and in his last fight he beat a ranked fighter in Dennis Bermudez. Aguilar is a high-level prospect and should have been in the UFC a while ago, but he'll be making his Octagon debut on very short notice against a very game fighter in Glenn and that looks like an opportunity to bet on the dog.

- There are still a couple of TUF bouts yet to be announced, so stay tuned to this article for updated lines when they come out.

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About the Author

Adam Martin

Mixed martial arts journalist. Lead writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com and also featured at @MMARatingsNet, @mmanews_com and @fightodds_io.

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