UFC Fight Night 140 takes place Saturday, November 17 at Estadio Mary Teran de Weiss in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the full betting odds for the card, and here they.
UFC Fight Night 140 Opening Odds
Neil Magny -210
Santiago Ponzinibbio +160
Ricardo Lamas -195
Darren Elkins +155
Khalil Rountree -285
Johnny Walker +205
Cezar Ferreira -215
Ian Heinisch +165
Marlon Vera -260
Guido Cannetti +180
Cynthia Calvillo -165
Poliana Botelho +125
Michel Prazeres -400
Bartosz Fabinski +280
Alexandre Pantoja -305
Ulka Sasaki +225
Humberto Bandenay -260
Austin Arnett +180
Laureano Staropoli -320
Hector Aldana +240
Jesus Pinedo -185
Devin Powell +145
Nad Narimani -300
Anderson dos Santos +220
Here are my initial reactions:
– The oddsmakers completely misjudged the Magny vs. Ponzinibbio opening line. It should be a competitive fight, but Magny should have never opened up as such a sizeable favorite, and the line has completely flipped now with Ponzinibbio sitting around -320 in shops with Magny around +260. Ponziibbio is on fire right now with six straight wins and he will be getting to main event a card in his home country of Argentina. You know he will be fired up for that. Magny has won two fights in a row and has looked solid in the UFC, but he does have a chin that can be cracked and Ponzinibbio is a tremendous striker. I think the odds are a bit too high in Ponzinibbio’s favor, though I do favor him to win. I just am worried if the fight goes to the fourth and fifth round that he burns himself out and Magny takes over. If Magny gets up to +350 maybe there’s a play to be made, but right now I’m not tempted enough.
– On the other hand, I am tempted by the dog in the Lamas vs. Elkins fight. I think this should be a really close fight between two well-rounded featherweights, but Elkins has looked better as of late and appears to have found a second wind training at Team Alpha Male. Lamas is 36 years old and his chin has not looked great lately. Elkins is one of the toughest competitors in the business and is hard to put away. We’ve seen Elkins win countless fights as an underdog in the UFC, and this might just be another one.
– Another dog I have my eye on is Fabinski, who takes on Prazeres in a battle between welterweight grinders. Prazeres is on a seven-fight win streak and has looked great in the UFC, but he is pretty undersized for welterweight and he’s 37 years old. Fabinski has won seven straight fights himself including three in the UFC. He’s the bigger fighter in this bout, and considering the style matchup, I think there’s really good value on the Polish grappler, who is one of the most underrated welterweights in the UFC.
– There’s a lot of fights featuring solid favorites that should pick up the win, but the one I’m most confident in is Pantoja to beat Sasaki. I just don’t think you can trust Sasaki in this spot. Yes, he’s picked up some impressive submissions in the UFC, but he’s extremely inconsistent and Pantoja matches up better against him than a lot of the guys he beat. I think Pantoja wins this one easy.
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