Big Marley’s UFC 230 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown


If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
 
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
 
Scoring

Moves

Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
 
This weekend we have the double champ, Daniel Cormier, defending his Heavyweight belt against the heavy hitting Derrick Lewis. On DraftKings, we have a $10 entry contest that pays out a total of $125,000, with $25,000 of that going to 1st place. We have 13-fights on the card with a lot of heavy favorites, so it should be an interesting night. I am looking forward to chasing that $25k and I will have 20 or so lineups in there myself. These are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
 
Cash Game play of the week – Daniel Cormier ($9,600)

This should be a dominant performance for DC and I think he puts up over 100-points in a win here. He will be very popular in tournaments, so maybe you can be contrarian in GPPs if you are chasing that $25k, but in cash games I think we just lock in DC and his -605 betting line. We don’t care about ownership as much in cash games, we just want to get a high floor and look for 4 wins or over ~350 points for most cards. We can pay up for DC at $9.6k for that 100+ points and then we can punt 1-2 fights to fit other favorites in our lineup as well. 
 
GPP play of the week – Lyman Good ($9,500)

With Good being only $100 cheaper than DC this week, he should be low owned with everyone choosing DC instead. In tournaments I think Good is a good pivot away from that high ownership and he has just as much upside with his round 1 finishing potential. It is going to be hard to fit both guys into lineups, so if Good can outscore DC at ~25% lower ownership, you could pass most of the field by being different there. Both guys are great plays, but the lower ownership is what makes Good the GPP play of the week. 
 
Underdog play of the week – Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($7,600)

Marcos Rogerio de Lima has 1st round finish potential at $7.6k. If he can get 100+ points at that price, then he will likely be on that $25k lineup. The downside with him is that if he can’t get the 1st round finish, then he is probably going to lose, and maybe get finished himself. I think he makes for a good GPP play since he is a boom/bust play, and that is what we want in GPPs. I would avoid his low floor in cash games though. 
 
Fade of the week – Julio Arce ($9,200)

Julio Arce is my pick to win this fight. He could even get a finish. I just don’t see him getting an early finish, and at $9.2k I don’t think a late finish will be enough points. With guys like DC and Good who should put up over 100-points, it would just be better to find ways to pay up for those guys instead. If Arce wins a decision here, he might be looking at ~75 DK points, and that isn’t going to cut it at $9.2k. We want at least 10x our price tag on DK, so if we are paying $9.2k for a fighter then we want somebody who we see putting up at least 92 DK points. I just don’t think this is the spot. There are just too many other good plays on this card for me to roster Arce with my 20 or so lineups, so he is my fade of the week. 

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

 

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Kyle Marley

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