Big Marley’s UFC 229 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This weekend we have the biggest contest we have ever seen for DraftKings MMA. We have a $10 entry contest with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of that to 1st place. I never thought we would see a 6-figure 1st place prize for MMA but I was wrong and I can’t wait to chase it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov is going to be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings just made it even bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights so we could see a number of ties for that 1st place prize, so try to be different with your lineups somewhere, or leave salary on the table to be different in that way. With that said, here are a few plays I like this weekend along with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the “safest” play on the card by a good margin at his -900 betting line. I love plugging in these high odds guys in cash so that I can lock a win in there and worry about finding 3 other wins out of my 5 other spots. We usually only need 4 wins in cash games to beat the cash line, so that is what I shoot for in those 50/50 or double up games. Luque has been very impressive in his UFC run and he has beat some pretty big names. On paper, this is one of his easiest matches yet. He also has big time upside with his finishing potential. He has an ITD line of -270, so I think we could have 100+ points in this win. He is a good play in all formats, but he will be chalky in tournaments, so that is why he is my cash play of the week instead.
GPP play of the week – Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are always good to target in GPPs because it only takes 1 shot with a lot of those guys. I think this is a good matchup for Volkov and he is only priced at $8.7k this week. If he can get a 1st round KO at that price, he will likely be on the winning LU. Same goes for Lewis, so he is a solid GPP play as well. But, my pick to win is going to be Volkov and I like his price. I think a few guys priced above him this week will be much higher owned, so we could get a heavyweight favorite at lower ownership here. Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is currently lined at -190, so this is a good GPP fight to target over all. If you like the Black Beast to get the W, then he is a good fighter to throw in your GPP LUs.
Underdog play of the week – Tony Martin ($7,400)
This is the best odds value on the card. Currently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 higher than Martin. I love looking for line value like that and that alone puts Martin in play in all formats. Martin also has the better odds to end this fight ITD, so that is another plus with him. I like the floor for Martin in cash games as well since Laflare isn’t likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we can afford a loss from Martin and just take the points he can rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week – Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could definitely get the win here. However, he is going to need to get a finish to pay off his $8.6k price tag. Sergio will not be going for any takedowns in this fight, and he doesn’t strike at a high enough rate for him to get 10x of that $8.6k. Sergio will be the better fighter on the feet, but if he doesn’t get a finish then he likely only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores don’t cut it at $8.6k. There are just better plays points per dollar and those are the guys I will be targeting. Sergio is a solid fade if you are making 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below: