UFC 229 takes place Saturday, October 6 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. The offshore sportsbooks recently released the opening odds for the full card, and here they are.
Khabib Nurmagomedov -185
Conor McGregor +155
Tony Ferguson -265
Anthony Pettis +185
Alexander Volkov -185
Derrick Lewis +145
Dominick Reyes -165
Ovince Saint-Preux +125
Michelle Waterson -140
Felice Herrig +100
Aspen Ladd -265
Tonya Evinger +185
Vicente Luque -320
Jalin Turner +240
Sergio Pettis -185
Jussier Formiga +145
Alan Patrick -245
Scott Holtzman +175
Lina Lansberg -130
Yana Kunitskaya -110
Nik Lentz -215
Gray Maynard +165
Ryan LaFlare -265
Tont Martin +185
And here are my initial thoughts on some of the opening odds:
– The main event between Nurmagomedov and McGregor is one of the most-anticipated bouts of the year, and for good reason. On paper it’s an incredibly interesting clash of styles featuring the top wrestler in the division against the top striker. It’s a tough one to call. Nurmagomedov has looked amazing in pretty much all of his UFC fights, but so has McGregor. Of course, McGregor’s layoff is a big concern. At the same time, it’s rare to see McGregor as a plus-money underdog and it’s hard to pass the odds up. It wouldn’t surprise me if Nurmagomedov was able to grind McGregor out, but I’ll take a shot on McGregor to win this fight at thes odds, and he’ll likely do so by knockout if he does indeed win.
– On the flipside, I don’t see any underdog value in the co-main event. I think Ferguson is just a terrible matchup for Pettis, even despite him coming back from a serious knee injury. I just feel like Ferguson is better everywhere the fight goes. He should have the better striking, submissions, wrestling, cardio and chin, and I don’t see Pettis standing much of a chance in this fight. I think Ferguson finishes this fight within the three rounds.
– Similarly, I see value on the favorite in the Reyes vs. OSP fight. OSP has been known to pull off the occasional upset, but I can’t see that happening here against Reyes, who has just looked amazing in the UFC so far. I think Reyes is going to be too fast and too strong for OSP and I believe there’s a very good chance he gets the finish.
– Some of the other favorites I like on this card include Patrick over Holtzman and Lentz over Maynard. I think both guys use their wrestling to grind out decision wins. It also goes without saying that I like Luque over Turner. I don’t understand why the UFC booked this matchup and I would keep your eye on the Luque wins inside the distance prop as he should get the knockout.
– For an underdog pick, I’d be on Herrig over Waterson at these opening odds, and it seems like most bettors are as the line has flipped and Herrig is now the favorite. Herrig has been more consistent in the UFC and looks to have more left in the tank than Waterson, who has always been undersized at 115lbs. I think Herrig wins a decision here and will be hoping the line flips around again before Fight Night.
