Big Marley’s UFC Fight Night 137 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This weekend, we have a 14-fight card in Brazil. DraftKings has some decent contests available for this Fight Night card, which is rare for these free ones. The main tourney is an $8 entry and pays $20k to 1st. That is the main GPP I will be chasing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well. However, this week DraftKings has two contests for trips out to Vegas to see the McGregor vs Khabib fight. Flight, hotel, and fights all paid for. The floor seats contest is a $33 entry and the non-floor seats contest is only a $15 entry. I will have to take a few shots at that as well. Also, DraftKings just released a contest for UFC 299 that is a $10 entry with a massive $100,000 to 1st place. That is by far the biggest prize we have ever seen in DFS MMA, so let’s build a bankroll this weekend so we can take some extra shots at that $100k. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Livia Renata Souza ($9,600)
Livia Souza is the safest win on the card and I think she gets this fight finished early. This is where I am starting my cash LUs this week. Just give me the -1100 favorite who is being fed an easy win here, for my cash games. I do like a lot of the top favorites on this card, I just would be the most shocked if Souza lost. I think she is fine in both formats, but she will probably be chalky in GPPs, so cash games are the best place to get your Souza investment this week. Take this win, then find 3 others and you should be good in cash games.
GPP play of the week – Charles Oliveira ($9,400)
I am a big Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira fan, and he has some of my favorites submissions in UFC history. I think we could see another awesome one here. This fight seems easy to call. Do Bronx will look for the early takedown and if he can get it then he probably gets a 1st round sub. If that happens he should lock up a solid 100 points and I am pretty confident in that being the outcome of this fight, so that is why he is my GPP play of the week. He is also my GPP play of the week, and not my Cash play of the week for a reason. If he can’t get the takedown(s) early, then he will probably quit and get finished himself with strikes. I don’t like that risk of a low floor for my cash LU, so I prefer Souza there. But in GPPs I like saving the $200 and going down to Do Bronx.
Underdog play of the week – Eryk Anders ($7,600)
I would like Anders a lot more if he wasn’t taking this fight on short notice, and if it wasn’t in Brazil. But he does have a clear path to victory here and that is by knocking out Santos who doesn’t have a great chin. Anders could also go for takedowns in this fight and he could win with some hard GNP as well. At $7.6k he will almost surely end up on the winning LU if he is able to get the KO. This is the main event, so he will have 5 rounds to work with. I do think this is a solid matchup for Anders, but he must be aggressive and not hang out on the outside. If he hangs out on the outside too long Santos will eat him up with kicks and it could be a short night for Anders. I am going to pick him to get the win here as an underdog in Brazil and I think he gets it done in the first two rounds with a KO. That will easily pay off his $7.6k salary and it will win you a GPP if you can get your other 5 spots correct as well.
Fade of the week – Sam Alvey ($9,200)
Sam Alvey is always a fade for me. Last time I wrote him up as my fade of the week on here, I was very wrong and he scored over 100 points. If that happens again here, then so be it. But I refuse to rely on an early KO win to pay off a $9.2k salary from a guy who doesn’t throw many strikes. At $9.2k I want at least 92 points from Alvey if I roster him and the only way get gets that is with a 1st round KO win. That could happen here against a 42-year-old Lil Nog, but I am not willing to invest my money in it.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: