Big Marley’s UFC 228 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown

Written by Kyle Marley.


If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:


GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %

Scoring

Moves


Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

There is a lot of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $25k in the main tournament. DK also has a lot of Qualifier contests available this week, where the final event will pay $50k to 1st for those who did qualify to play in it. I will be chasing those as well because we have never had a $50k 1st place prize and I want it. We did have one fight fall off but we still have a 13-fight card. This is a great card to build your bankroll for the first Sunday of NFL so you can chase that $1M.

Cash Game play of the week – Zabit Magomedsharipov ($9,400)

Zabit is going to be super chalky in tournament. Everybody who had Shevchenko in their lineup is going to switch to Zabit and he will likely be the most owned fighter on the slate. In cash games we don’t really care about ownership as much and I will be starting my cash team with Zabit. I think he is the easiest win on the card and he has the highest ceiling as well. I think if you want to get sneaky and not use Zabit, the GPPs are the place to do that. Lock him in cash and take the easy win. Then you just need to find about 3 other wins and you should have a winning cash team.

GPP play of the week – Alex White ($8,600)

I think Jim Miller is near the end of his career and I am thinking this will be the last time we see him in the UFC. I think he is going to be handed his 5th loss in a row here and I’m guessing it will be via knockout. I think Alex White is going to be too strong and fast for Jim Miller at this stage in his career and I think he will be able to keep this fight on the feet. With everyone paying up for Zabit in GPPs, Alex White and some other mid-range favorites could be a good way to go to make your lineups more contrarian and try to get 1st place in a GPP that way. I do like White a good bit in this fight and I think he has 100+ point potential at an $8.6k salary. For that reason, he is my GPP play of the week.

Underdog play of the week – Diego Sanchez ($7,300)

Diego Sanchez is my underdog play of the week because I do not think Craig White is any good. Sanchez may be completely shot, and if that is the case he could get KO’d early. But I don’t think Craig White should be over -200 against any UFC fighter. Diego is cheap enough where it allows you to get some of the higher favorites you like in your lineup, and I think he can get a decision win here. He will be my pick to win, but it’s not a confident pick and I think he makes for a better GPP play than cash punt.

Fade of the week – Aljamain Sterling ($8,500)

I am looking forward to watching this fight and I will be picking Aljo to get the win here. My issue is that I don’t think he is very likely to score highly, and maybe not even 10x his salary. I think a lot of this fight will take place on the feet and Aljo does not throw at a high enough pace to score well in a striking match. He will need to get this fight to the ground a few times and rack up some advance points for him to score highly. I just don’t see that happening. I think this will be a very close fight and I would rather just pay up for any of the fighters above Sterling. I think we would be looking at a score around 70-75 DK points with an Aljo decision win here.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

//mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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Kyle Marley

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