UFC 228 takes place Saturday, September 8 at American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The offshore sportsbooks recently released the opening odds for the full card, and here they are, along with my initial thoughts on them.
UFC 228 Opening Odds
Tyron Woodley -145
Darren Till +115
Valentina Shevchenko -675
Nicco Montano +450
Jessica Andrade -280
Karolina Kowalkiewicz +200
Tatiana Suarez -350
Carla Esparza +250
Abdul Razak Alhassan -185
Niko Price +145
Aljamain Sterling -145
Cody Stamann +105
Charles Byrd -185
Darren Stewart +145
Jimmie Rivera -195
John Dodson +155
Craig White -245
Diego Sanchez +175
Jim Miller -130
Alex White -110
Lucie Pudilova -130
Irena Aldana -110
Ryan Benoit -135
Roberto Sanchez -105
Geoff Neal -230
Frank Camacho +170
And my initial thoughts on some of these bouts are as follows:
– I’ve already given my thoughts in depth on the main event between Woodley vs. Till, which you can find here, and the co-main event between Shevchenko and Montano, which you can find here.
– Elsewhere on the main card, I find it hard not to like Price as a dog to Alhassan. Price (12-1, 1 NC) is 4-1, 1 NC in the UFC and all four of his wins have come by stoppage. In his last fight he knocked out Randy Brown from bottom position with hammerfists which shows just dynamic his game is. His only career loss came against Vicente Luque, who is a really underrated fighter himself. Alhassan (9-1) is 3-1 in the UFC and is coming off of two straight TKO wins over Sabah Homasi. He has a lot of power, but we saw in his loss to Omari Akhmedov that his cardio is a real issue. Alhassan is a really good striker but I feel like Price is more well rounded and I think as a dog there’s serious value on Price here.
– Another dog I’m liking is Stamann over Sterling. Stamann (17-1) is on a 10-fight win streak and is 3-1 in the UFC with a notable split decision win over Bryan Caraway in his last fight. Sterling (15-3) is 7-3 overall in the UFC and is coming off of a decision win over Brett Johns which put away the disappointment of his KO loss to Marlon Moraes. I think Sterling is a great fighter but I honestly feel like Stamann is a legitimte title contender and I don’t think people know how good he is just yet. This may be the last time you get him at a dog price for a while.
– As far as chalk goes, you have to go with White over Sanchez. White (14-8) was knocked out on short notice by Neil Magny in his UFC debut but had won four straight bouts in Cage Warriors before that. Sanchez (27-11) is 16-11 in the UFC and is going to be in the Hall of Fame one day but he has really tailed off in recent years and is coming off of back-to-back knockout losses to Al Iaquinta and Matt Brown. Sanchez has never fared well at welterweight and I don’t think he has much left in the tank at this point. I think you have to fade him in this fight and there’s still some good value on White at the opening price.
– Keep in mind Zabit Magomedsharipov is supposed to get a replacement opponent for the injured Yair Rodriguez, so there could be an additional betting line added to this event, though it’s likely he will be a huge favorite against anyone.
