If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This weekend we have a 13-fight card after that long 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and I am ready to win some money on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters making their UFC debut so it is always nice when you are already familiar with all the fighters on the card. Since this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings contests are not the greatest, but there is still a lot of money to be won. I will personally be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in cash games, mainly H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those big prizes. Here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is how I will be starting my cash lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any fight Gaethje is in is full of action and his three UFC fights have all been Fight Of The Year type fights. Those types of fights are great for DraftKings. Especially cash games because we can lock in a win and get all the points in the best fight on the card. Usually 4 wins will get the job done in cash games and we will get over 100 points with this fight. So, with that win locked in, we just need to find 3 others we feel good about.
GPP play of the week – Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It is tough to want to pay $9.5k for a guy like Barberena when you can just pay an extra $200 to get a -1000 favorite in Anders. However, I think that is what most people will do and that is what makes Barberena a good GPP play. I think we will get him at a somewhat lower ownership due to his massive salary, and he has a very good shot at getting a 1st round win. If he can get a 1st round KO then he will have at least 100 points so he will pay off that high salary. If you think Ellenberger is completely faded, then I think you should get some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD line is -170 and Ellenberger looks like he is a shell of his old self. I think Barberena does pick up a finish in this fight so I will throw him in some GPPs and hope he is under owned.
Underdog play of the week – Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is just the easy value play of the week. Currently, Fili is the betting favorite at -115 over Michael Johnson at +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is only $7.5k. I love taking that value when it is available so I think he is in play in all formats. He will be popular in tournaments with all the value we are getting on him, but I am willing to eat that chalk and I don’t want to get burned by completely fading that value. I do think this is the toughest fight on the card to call, but if Fili keeps using his wrestling I think he will have a good shot at winning this fight. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I would favor MJ but not by a lot. At $7.5k we don’t need a huge score from Fili so any win will probably do the trick. I am not going to pass up on this value and I think he is the easy underdog of the week on DK.
Fade of the week – Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my own personal bias but I will not have Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has only went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he is mainly just looking to strike. I think this will be a striking battle as well and I think it will be closer than the odds indicate. At $8.9k I think we will need a finish from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and I don’t see that happening. If you do think Dober can get a KO, then you should be playing him. I will just be paying up elsewhere because I am not sure he can get that finish and I wouldn’t be shocked if he even lost the fight. I will say that I never look to use Dober in DraftKings, so I could get burned again here but I am going to stick with my Dober fade and he will be my fade of the week for UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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