The opening odds for the upcoming lightweight bout at UFC 230 between Dustin Poirier and Nate Diaz were recently released by the offshore sportsbooks, and here they are:

UFC 230 Opening Odds
Saturday, November 3 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York

Dustin Poirier -190
Nate Diaz +150

And here are my initial thoughts on this bout:

The UFC completely surprised the MMA world when it announced this lightweight matchup between Poirier and Diaz, two of the most popular fighters on the roster. Poirier has just looked incredible as of late but with Conor McGregor and Khabib Nurmagomedov fighting for the title he had no chance of getting a title shot anytime soon and decided to take this fight against Diaz, who will be returning to the Octagon after two years away.

Poirier (24-5, 1 NC) has just been a godsend to the lightweight division. Poirier was a good featherweight, but he’s an elite lightweight. He’s 8-1, 1 NC since moving up a weight class, and in his last three fights he’s knocked out Eddie Alvarez, Justin Gaethje, and Anthony Pettis. His striking is so precise and powerful and no one except for Michael Johnson has given him any problems on the feet as a lightweight. Poirier still gets tagged quite a bit and we have seen him get knocked out before, but with the amount of thunder he has in his strikes he’s a very tough opponent for anyone at 155lbs.

Diaz (19-11) is coming off of a two-year layoff since losing in his rematch to McGregor, but prior to that fight he was riding a high as he was the first man to beat McGregor in the Octagon when he tapped him out and he also had a dominant win over Johnson before that. People forget just how talented Diaz is because he hasn’t fought in so long, but he’s one of the best boxers at 155lbs and he also has a great ground game and a ridiculous chin. He’s a special talent and it’s good to have him back in the UFC. Having said that, the layoff is definitely a big concern. Anytime a fighter is out of the cage for more than a year it’s a red flag and Diaz hasn’t fought in two years. He’s a guy who is always in tremendous shape but still, there could be some ring rust here.

This is a bit of a tricky matchup since Diaz has such good boxing and we have seen Poirier have defensive problems on the feet at times but considering what a high level Poirier is fighting at right now, it’s hard not to agree with him being the favorite here, and he has a really good chance to get a title shot if he can go out there and put on an impressive showing against Diaz, who is extremely difficult to finish. If Diaz wins, wow, that would change the whole state of the lightweight division. It’s a win-win for the UFC and I know fans are excited to watch this one.


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