In what could be a hilarious fight for all of the wrong reasons, lightweight non-contenders Alvaro Herrera and Devin Powell go to war this weekend. This betting prediction is for level 10 degenerates only.

Alvaro Herrera

Essentially a pure boxer, Alvaro Herrera has some legitimate power in his hands. Against Vernon Ramos, a fighter that is no longer in the UFC, Herrera was able to land his thunderous right hand to secure victory in the very first minute of the fight. However, whenever Herrera has had to fight more than a few minutes, his cardio has failed him badly. Perhaps that’s something he’s been working to improve, but that’s only speculation.

Even more worrying than Herrera’s cardio is his lack of a ground game. There’s no shame in being submitted by Vicente Luque, but holding onto a headlock for too long against Jordan Rinaldi got him caught in a Von Flue choke in the early stages of his last fight. These are not the type of mistakes you can afford to make at the UFC level. Looking at Herrera’s social media, it appears that he has been primarily training at a boxing gym for this camp.

Devin Powell

Devin Powell has a serviceable kicking game, but his hands are not good. He overextends a lot and is extremely hittable in boxing range. You can bet that Powell will get tagged a few times at the beginning of the first round, although he seems to be durable. His ability to weather the early storm could be a crucial factor in the outcome of this bout.

Powell is not much of a wrestler and has been put on his back repeatedly in his UFC and regional fights. This isn’t likely to be significant against Herrera, who never shoots takedowns. While Powell is a jiu-jitsu black belt, his guard game isn’t overly impressive. However, he does look competent on the mat when he’s the one in a dominant position. If he can somehow ground Herrera, Powell has a good chance to finish the fight via submission. Given Herrera’s propensity to gas, he shouldn’t be impossible to take down – even though wrestling isn’t a strength for Powell.

Who Wins?

I think the most likely outcomes for this fight are Herrera by early knockout or Powell by submission if he’s able to survive. Skill for skill, this is a tough fight to predict – but I do believe Powell has the durability and cardio advantage. Listening to interviews with Powell, it sounds like he’s desperate for some bonus money. I believe he will be chasing for a finish.

Pick: Devin Powell by submission +241

Check out my other UFC on Fox 30 betting predictions.


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