UFC on FOX 30: Alvarez vs. Poirier II
Date: July 28
Arena: Scotiabank Saddledome
City: Calgary, Alberta, Canada

My Fights to AVOID betting are:

Lightweight bout: John Makdessi (-170) vs. Ross Pearson (+150)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Makdessi gets the home advantage in this one, which could benefit him, should this 155-pound contest reach the judges’ scorecards for a decision. I expect this to be a stand up affair in which both fighters have their moments. I could see a finish coming on either end, and at the end of 15 minutes, I could see it being anybody’s fight. If not in Makdessi’s backyard, I may have taken a shot on Pearson at +150, but considering the judges could play a factor here, I’m going to have to stay away from this one. I think this is a scrap that is best left alone at the sportsbook on Saturday.

Gabe’s Call: Majority DRAW (28-28, 29-28, 28-28

Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Lightweight bout: Devin Powell (-125) vs. Alvaro Herrera (+105)

Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a loser goes home matchup between two of the lowest tier 155 pounders on the UFC’s roster. Popular opinion is that Herrera will try to knock Powell out early, and if he fails, Powell will submit him. I think those are both very likely outcomes, but I could also see Herrera fail to finish Powell, and in return, Powell fail to finish a gassed Herrera. I could see this being a sloppy fight that hits the judges’ scorecards, which would be a first for Herrera in his professional mixed martial arts career. I think the most likely outcome is Powell surviving an early onslaught from Herrera and then catching him with a guillotine or rear naked choke, however I’m gonna say Herrera puts up a fight and sees the judges’ scorecards for a split decision defeat. I definitely think this is a “favorite or pass” fight, but I can’t get myself to pull the trigger on the slight -125 betting favorite Powell, so I’m going to stay away from this one. I’d love to say I’m going to just sit back and enjoy this one, but I have my doubts about it being very enjoyable.

Gabe’s Call: Powell by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

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