Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look ahead to main event at UFC on Fox 30 as Eddie Alvarez takes on Dustin Poirier in a rematch of their bout from May 2017.
Eddie Alvarez (Record: 29-5-1, -165 Favorite, Power Ranking: A-)
The born-and-raised Philadelphia, Pennsylvania-native has competed against the best fighters in the division in his stint in the UFC. The former lightweight champion returns to the cage for the first time since December 2017 when he knocked out Justin Gaethje.
A prep school All American in both boxing and wrestling, Alvarez quickly gravitated towards MMA after finishing high school making his professional MMA debut at 19 years of age. Alvarez made his mark in Bellator debuting in the promotion’s first ever event. He fought in the promotion ten times, losing only once; in perhaps the best fight in Bellator history against Michael Chandler. Alvarez left Bellator in 2014 as the promotion’s best fighter to test himself in the UFC. Alvarez has proven to be a crafty veteran with a never say die attitude. He’s a solid wrestler with very good boxing. His skill set is well-rounded, but what really makes him an elite fighter is his heart and determination. He’s been in trouble in several fights, but knows how to fight out of bad situations and tends to get better as fights progress. Even when outmatched skill to skill, he finds ways to force his opponent into a dog fight ultimately making it very close for judges to score if it hits the scorecards. In 35 career fights, he’s only been finished four times. Durability, determination, and a well-rounded skill set defines Eddie Alvarez as a fighter.
Dustin Poirier (Record: 23-5-1, +145 Underdog, Power Ranking: A-)
The Louisiana born-and-raised fighter has been a perennial top 15 fighter at both featherweight and lightweight. He’s currently on the best run of his career going undefeated in his last four fights including finishes over former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis and lightweight contender Justin Gaethje.
The American Top Team lightweight has become one of the most entertaining fighters in the division. He’s a very strong starter as he opens his bouts on the offensive with an aggressive striking approach. He is a volume heavy striker landing historically over 5.5 significant strikes per minute at a 49% success clip. Defensively he’s pretty solid absorbing 3.73 significant strikes per minute. He has above average power for the weight class and will go for the finish as soon as he senses it. At times he has employed effective offensive wrestling, but his approach to wrestling is not consistent. In many of his bouts, he has completely abandoned takedown attempts and focused simply on striking. He used to be lethal on the ground with one of the better d’arce chokes in MMA, but hasn’t earned a submission victory since 2012. Defensively is where he has had the most issues. He’s hittable on the feet and his over aggression has gotten the most of him at times. His last two losses have been by knockout against quality strikers. He’s been one to want to show he can compete with the division’s best strikers, but that has come back to bite him at times.
Matchup
In a rematch that fans have been clamoring for, Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier meet in UFC on Fox 30’s main event. It’s a high stakes bout with the winner putting himself in the title challenger conversation. These two fighters last fought in May 2017. In that fight, Poirier started off well hurting Alvarez in the opening round. As the fight wore on, Alvarez improved and found himself in round two rocking Poirier, but an illegal forced the referee to stop the fight and it was ruled a no contest. I expect this bout to see a similar start of Poirier starting well. He should be the attacker early in this fight, but he’s more vulnerable as the fight goes longer. Look for Alvarez to find his moments in the middle rounds and change the course of the fight. Poirier has faltered in past fights several times after having strong starts including against Alvarez in 2017. Eddie Alvarez is one of the best fighters in the sport over five rounds and I think the fight being scheduled for that length plays into his hands. It may take him some time to truly take over, but once he does it will be clear. Alvarez to win at +135 is intriguing, but what I think is the best line on the board is Alvarez by TKO at +300. Alvarez is absolutely capable of finishing late and as Poirier fades there will be opportunities to do so. At a sizable payout of +300, this is worth a bet in a fight that Alvarez should be priced as a pickem or even perhaps as a slight favorite.
