UFC Calgary, AKA UFC on Fox 30 comes to a TV near you this Saturday, July 28 from Calgary, Alberta Canada. The Fox card features a who’s who of well-known fighters under the UFC banner including: Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Tecia Torres, Jose Aldo vs. Jeremy Stephens, and a rematch from last year’s matchup between lightweight contenders Eddie Alvarez & Dustin Poirier from UFC 211.
Here are some props that I think have a good chance of cashing:
Alex Morono vs. Jordan Mein
I really dig this scrap in the fact that both of these guys have great finishing ability and I can see either of one them scoring a brutal KO from out of the blue. Whoever gets their hand raised is more of a coin-flip for me, but Morono is off the heels of a submission victory over Josh Burkman and Jordan Mein snapped a three-fight losing streak by taking a decision over Erick Silva. In 60 combined fights between the two, 42 have ended in a finish. Both have great finishing ability with many of their wins coming by first round finish. Mein, who retired a few years ago but has since returned to the sport, has taken incredible amounts of damage in his young career and I do think he is a continuously-declining fighter. Morono is only a year younger but hasn’t taken near the punishment. I expect an exciting fight between the two and a TKO finish from Morono, but I won’t shy away from Mein getting his hand raised the same way.
Prop: Fight doesn’t go to decision (+140)
Jose Aldo vs. Jeremy Stephens
One of the premiere fights of the main card on Fox. and this is a really fun fight. Aldo has something to prove to the world and himself that he is still an elite fighter and hasn’t started a decline despite two brutal finishes at the hands of current featherweight champion Max Holloway. Jeremy Stephens is looking to add onto his win streak and possibly a title shot in the future with his biggest win of his career. Stephens has two great highlight reel knockouts in 2018 over Doo Ho Choi & Josh Emmett that’ll make you cringe. I think this whole fight is determined on just how good Aldo still is. It’s crazy to know he (Aldo) is now 1-3 in his last 4 fights and at one point was considered just about untouchable by any fighter. Aldo’s gas tank isn’t great when he is pressured but when he is in control of the fight and creates his own pace then he is able to maintain his cardio. I think Stephens will be pressuring forward looking to tire out Aldo inside the three rounds and look for a knockout win or a clear decision victory. I still have to favor Aldo here due to that I think we can’t completely write him off. He is one of the most complete fighters in MMA with some of the most elite striking and devastating leg kicks we have seen. I’m leaning Jose Aldo to win a decision but may have to survive a third-round rally from Stephens.
Prop: Jose Aldo wins by decision (+120)
Dustin Poirier vs. Eddie Alvarez
Any fight featuring Dustin Poirier or Eddie Alvarez deserves to be nothing short of five rounds and I’m glad we are getting to witness possibly 25 minutes of it, though I doubt it sees the judges’ scorecards. Their first fight headlined the prelims on Fox of the UFC 211 PPV event and saw it end in a no-contest after Alvarez kneed Poirier illegally who was labeled a “downed opponent”. Poirier initially hurt and was on the brink of finishing Alvarez when he countered with a set of knees to have the referee step in and stop the fight. The two have traded blows at each other on social media and we are just a few days away from the rematch between two exciting, violent fighters inside their talent stacked 155 lb. division. While I definitely lean Poirier to get the job done here, his ‘Inside the Distance’ prop is around even money, and Alvarez to finish the fight is +209. The oddsmakers have this one right as they think Poirier should finish what he started with putting a stamp on this rivalry. If you are looking for something juicer in value, I would suggest finding a good round prop for Poirier like round 3 or 4 as they should have really high odds. I believe the fight will play out a bit for both fighters and then we’ll see a finish from Poirier in the middle to later rounds.
Prop: Dustin Poirier wins by inside the distance (-110) OR wins in round 3 or 4
NOTE: The round props weren’t released at the time this article was finished, but I wanted to get it out for the readers and have plenty of time to read it and analyze the fights for themselves.
Also, I was going to add Joanna Jedrzejczyk to win by a decision prop, BUT that prop blew out of the water today. The line had great value around -125/-135 but has now seen the heights of -210 which is just out of range for me. It has since dropped back down to -150. I do think she rebounds here with a good performance and out-strikes Torres to a decision so if it drops to -140 or lower, it will have some value.
Best of luck and thanks for reading!
