UFC 227 takes place Saturday, August 4 at Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. The offshore sportsbooks recently released the opening odds for the complete card, and here they are, along with my initial thoughts on them.
UFC 227 Opening Odds
TJ Dillashaw -135
Cody Garbrandt -105
Demetrious Johnson -475
Henry Cejudo +325
Renato Moicano -165
Cub Swanson +125
Polyana Viana -210
JJ Aldrich +160
Pedro Munhoz -155
Brett Johns +115
Ricardo Ramos -245
Kyung Ho Kang +175
Irene Aldana -215
Bethe Correia +165
Alex Perez -120
Jose Torres -120
Sheymon Moraes -125
Matt Sayles -115
Weili Zhang -245
Danielle Taylor +175
Marlon Vera -230
Wuliji Buren +170
Thiago Santos -275
Kevin Holland +215
Ricky Simon -175
Montel Jackson +145
And my initial thoughts on these odds:
– I previously gave my thoughts on several of the main card bouts in a recent article. Keep in mind that there have been some changes to this card, as Alexander Gustafsson vs. Volkan Oezdemir and Derek Brunson vs. Antonio Carlos Junior were both cancelled, while Ricky Simon is now going to fight Montel Jackson on short notice. As well, Thiago Santos vs. Kevin Holland was a very late addition to this card. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw a few more last-minute changes to this card during fight week.
– Of the bigger favorites on the card the one guy I like to get a win is Vera when he takes on Buren. Vera has a ton of experience in the UFC and we’ve seen some really impressive performances from him in the past. He’s on a two-fight losing streak right now which is the only reason why he isn’t a bigger favorite here. I just don’t think Buren is a UFC-caliber fighter at all and I’m honestly shocked he’s still in the UFC. Realistically Vera could have opened up as a much bigger favorite in this fight, and I expect him to be steamed up by the time the week is over as I just can’t see anyone putting any sort of significant confidence in Buren’s abilities.
– For dogs, in the Munhoz vs. Johns fight, I’m kind of digging the Johns at a dog price. I know he just lost to Aljamain Sterling and he looked really bad in that fight, but in pretty much all of his other fights he was a huge favorite so to see him as a plus-money dog is a bit surprising. Munhoz is definitely a good fighter but I feel like Johns can hang with him on the feet and as long as he doesn’t leave his neck out and get submitted I think Johns has a really good chance of outworking Munhoz and winning a decision.
– Another fighter I am leaning towards is Torres, who takes on Perez in an undercard fight. Torres is still an undefeated fighter and while he didn’t have the greatest UFC debut against Jarred Brooks he still found a way to win. Perez is on a nice seven-fight win streak but he’s been stopped by submission numerous times in his career and Torres absolutely has the potential to tap him out. The early action is on Perez, and I like Torres at any sort of plus-money number.
