Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the biggest fight of 2018 thus far as former UFC light heavyweight champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua takes on Anthony Smith in a light heavyweight bout that headlines UFC Fight Night 134.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (Record: 25-10, +185 Underdog, Power Ranking: D+)
The 36-year-old legend returns to the Octagon for the first time since March 2017. In his last outing, Shogun knocked out Gian Villante in the third round. Rua is on a three fight winning streak overall which also includes wins over Corey Anderson and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
The Kings MMA fighter holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and muay thai. Rua got his start in Curitiba, Brazil before making his mark on the sport at the height of Pride in Japan prior to moving to the UFC in 2007 where he has been fighting since. While Shogun is capable on the mat, he’s long been known for his striking. There are very few fighters who have been involved in the kind of striking wars that Shogun has been in. His first fight with Dan Henderson in 2011 is considered one of the greatest fights of all time. From a striking stand point, Shogun uses his muay thai approach to both land heavy leg kicks as well as combinations on the feet. From a technical stand point, despite his advanced age, he’s certainly one of the more skilled fighters in the division and is capable of taking control on the feet. Over the course of his career, he has been durable, but as he’s gotten older that durability has lessened to some extent. Despite taking a lot of damage, he’s been known to come back after being hurt and earn victories. On the feet he is a proven finisher with 20 of his 25 career victories coming by knockout.
Anthony Smith (Record: 29-13, -235 Favorite, Power Ranking: C-)
The 29-year-old veteran has been on one of the best run of forms of his career winning four of five fights. Smith earned his biggest win to date knocking out former light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans in under one minute in June. This is his light heavyweight debut in the UFC.
The Factory X fighter has fought in many of North America’s biggest promotions prior to joining the UFC in 2016. Smith was a massive middleweight at 6’4” and a reach of over 77 inches. Smith utilized his size well to beat up on smaller fighters. He’s good on the feet with powerful hands and underrated technique. As he is a power puncher, his striking volume is rather low at just 3.15 significant strikes. Defensively, he is a big target and tends to get hit absorbing close to four significant strikes a minute. In the past, he had struggled with conditioning and tended to slow down after the opening round. He was a fighter that had a very good five minutes and regressed after that. He has shown improvements in recent bouts where he has actually been able to finish opponents late in bouts. A major weakness in his game is grappling. His takedown defense is just 48% and he can be controlled there by strong wrestler. Durability is another major concern as he has been finished in 12 of his 13 losses.
Matchup
In what should be an action packed bout, Shogun Rua takes on Anthony Smith in the main event at UFC Fight Night 133. Don’t blink in this fight as these fighters have finished a combined 46 fights. Expect these fighters to go strong from the onset as they are both proven finishers. Despite being the much taller fighter, Anthony Smith will have a negligible reach advantage in this bout. Ultimately, this fight will come down to which fighter will land the big shot first and get the finish. Both have shown vulnerabilities so I’d be resistant to betting Smith as over a 2 to 1 favorite in this fight. With that said, Shogun hasn’t fought in over a year and there’s little room for ring rust in this bout. My gut sees Anthony Smith land a big knee which hurts Shogun and allows him to get the finish, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all for Shogun to land a combination of his own which puts Smith away. One thing I do like is the fight doesn’t go the distance prop. Priced currently at -350, I think this a gift given the striking power and propensity of both of these fighters. Expect a fun, entertaining bout that ends inside the distance. Look to parlay the Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance with Manny Bermudez moneyline on the undercard for (-120).
