PFL 4 takes place Thursday, July 19 at Nassau Colliseum in Long Island, New York. The offshore sportsbooks recently released the opening odds for the card, and here they are.
PFL 4 Opening Odds
Lance Palmer -405
Jumabieke Tuerxun +285
Andre Harrison -320
Nazareno Malagerie +240
Jack May -140
Francimar Barroso +100
Alexandre Almeida -165
Steven Siler +125
Alex Nicholson -260
Philipe Lins +180
Jared Rosholt -190
Kevin Tiller +150
Max Coga -325
Marcos Galvao +242
Shawn Jordan -245
Josh Copeland +175
Bekbulat Magomedov -300
Carl Deaton +220
Timur Valiev -1050
Darrick Minner +550
And here are my initial reactions on the PFL 4 opening odds:
– I think the Palmer vs. Tuerxun fight is a total mismatch and I’m shocked Palmer isn’t a -1000 favorite. Palmer (13-3) is riding a two-fight win streak with victories over Steven Silver and Bekbulat Magomedov in his last two outings. Team Alpha Male has been really hot as of late and I’m expecting big things from “The Party” in this fight. Tuerxun (20-7-1) has lost three of his last four fights and his lone win in that stretch was over someone with one pro fight. He was dominated by Andre Harrison in his last fight and there’s no reason to think Palmer will win this either. Take him at this price as he should be a bigger favorite.
– In the May vs. Barroso fight I actually am leaning towards the underdog in Barroso. May (10-3) is on a three-fight win streak and smashed Josh Copeland in his last fight but I still don’t trust his chin or his cardio. Barroso (20-7) was bounced out of the UFC but rebounded with a nice TKO win over Daniel Gallremore in his PFL debut. Barroso is a boring fighter but he knows how to win a decision, and if he can survive the first round against May, then I like him to take the fight on points.
– Another favorite I like is Nicholson, who takes on Lins in a light heavyweight bout. Nicholson (12-5) has won five of his last six fights since being cut by the UFC and knocked out Jake Heun in devastating fashion in his PFL debut. He has been very active this year which I like, and you can’t discount his KO power. Lins (10-3) is coming off of two straight losses in Bellator, both against somewhat unknown fighters. Nicholson should get the win by KO, and I wouldn’t hesitate to play him at this reasonable number.
– For dogs, at this point I’m not sure how you can bet against Siler, who takes on Almeida in an intriguing featherweight fight. Siler (30-17) is coming off of a historic upset win over Magomed Idrisov in his last fight which was one of the biggest underdog wins in MMA history. He has lost a lot in his career, but generally against solid competition. Almeida (19-7) beat Lee Coville by submission in his last fight but prior to that lost to an unknown Steven Rodriguez. I think he’s still living off of that big upset win he had over Lance Palmer a few years ago, and at these odds I am tempted to take a stab at Siler as the dog.
