Big Marley’s UFC 226 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown


If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:


GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %


Scoring

Moves

Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts

Fight Conclusion Bonuses

1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts

There is a lot of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k in the main tournament. I will be going heavier than usual this week chasing the big GPP prizes, and I will play less cash games than normal. This is the first time we have seen a $30k top prize so I think it is worth chasing if you have the bankroll for it. 

We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling out of the fight against Brian Ortega, so we are now down to 11 fights and we should see a lot of ties on this card with the more popular lineups. If you are chasing that $30K then you’ll want to try and be a bit different with your lineup so you can separate yourself from the rest of the field. With that said, let’s get into a few plays I like as well as my fade of the week.

Cash Game play of the week – Paul Felder ($7,400)

The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That is just too much line value to pass on in cash games and that makes Felder the “free square” this week. Even if he loses this fight, he should be so highly owned that it won’t even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be one of the highest owned fighters on the card and if he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe think about avoiding the chalk there if you can. But with that crazy line value we are getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of the week.

GPP play of the week – Mike Perry ($8,800)

Ok, I know this sounds a little weird since I literally just picked Paul Felder as my cash play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about ownership. If Felder is 90% owned in cash games, then it doesn’t hurt your lineup because only 10% of lineups didn’t have him and you only need to be top ~50% of the field to cash in cash games. In GPPs, I am guessing Felder will be over 50% owned. If he loses, that is half of the field that is dead with no shot at winning 1st place. 

Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just because of the mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50% of lineups, then you also get a win with the low owned guy to put you in a much better place of a solo 1st place win and possibly hitting that $30k. Perry has the power to KO anybody and Paul Felder is taking this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Would it really shock you that much if Perry could KO him in this fight? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust play and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of the week.

Underdog play of the week – Anthony Pettis ($7,600)

Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this fight took place 5 years ago, but now we get a fading Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 cheaper than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can keep this fight standing for most the fight and that should give him a big edge. He is also dangerous on the ground himself and if he is taken down I think he will be able to get back up if he isn’t able to get a submission of his own. If Pettis can win a decision then I think he will pay off his DK price tag and will be a good underdog to use so you can save salary in your lineups. I can also see this fight ending early from Pettis dropping Chiesa with a body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup if he can make it happen in round 1.

Fade of the week – Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)

At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the fight, but I don’t see him paying off that high price tag. He does not fight at a heavy pace and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the ground is where he will have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those last 4 wins, Assuncao hasn’t scored over 78 DK points and at his salary this week I want at least 91 points out of him to pay that much. I would rather pay up for the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of them, making him my fade of the week.

Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:

//mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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Kyle Marley

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