TUF 27 Finale: Alex Caceres vs. Martin Bravo Fight Breakdown

Alex Caceres 

Age: 30
Nationality: American
MMA Record: 13-11, 1 NC
UFC Record: 8-9, 1 NC
Notable Wins: Sergio Pettis
Notable Losses: Urijah Faber, Jason Knight, Urijah Faber
Last Fight: Split decision loss to Wang Guan

Fighter Profile: A former TUF competitor, Caceres has had a very inconsistent UFC career so far. He started off his UFC career 1-3 but then rebounded and went on an undefeated run for five fights culminating in a submission win over Pettis which pushed him into title contention at 135lbs. He then suffered three-straight losses against tougher competition and was nearly cut by the UFC but he was able to win two-straight fights and keep his job. But since then he's lost three of his last four bouts including an ugly loss to Guan in his last fight. At times Caceres has some very good skills on the feet and on the ground but he's just so inconsistent and hard to trust because his defense is so bad and he has a low fight IQ.

Martin Bravo

Age: 24
Nationality: Mexican
MMA Record: 11-1
UFC Record: 1-1
Notable Wins: Claudio Puelles
Notable Losses: Humberto Bandenay
Last Fight: KO loss to Humberto Bandenay

Fighter Profile: The winner of TUF Latin America 2, Bravo shined in the finals with a submission win over Puelles which earned him a contract in the UFC. He was supposed to beat Bandenay but was shockingly knocked out and now has to rebuild his stock. At only 24, he has plenty of time to do so. Offensively Bravo is a very talented fighter and has the ability to finish fights both on the feet and on the ground. His level of competition has been rather low throughout his career but the fact he won four fights on the show to win it speaks volumes about his potential in the sport. He still has yet to show everything he has in the Octagon yet, but perhaps this will be the fight where he does it.

Fight Breakdown: The odds are close to a Pick 'em for a reason as both men have their strengths and weaknesses. Caceres has a ton of experience and when he's on he can show off some serious striking and submission skills, but he can also be tapped out himself and his chin isn't very good. Bravo offensively has a ton of talent but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. That being said, I just think you have to fade Caceres in this spot. He's taken quite a bit of damage in his career and overall has just been a disappointment in the UFC as he sports a sub .500 record inside the Octagon. He's just super inconsistent and a guy who is a good fade candidate. Bravo obviously got upset in his last fight but he was quite impressive on TUF and I still feel like he has some potential. Bravo is the younger fighter in this spot and I believe he has more upside. I'm going to go ahead and take Bravo as the slight underdog in this one, and I think he has a good chance to win this fight by submission.

Prediction: Martin Bravo via submission

Tags: betting preview

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About the Author

Adam Martin

Mixed martial arts journalist. Lead writer for MMAOddsbreaker.com and also featured at @MMARatingsNet, @mmanews_com and @fightodds_io.

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