If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your % of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field %
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This week, we have a Fight Pass card in Singapore. Because it is in Singapore, we have to wake up at 4:30am ET to watch it live. I have already set the alarm and I will be up ready to sweat these early fights. DraftKings doesn’t have many big tournaments this week so I will personally be playing more cash games and less GPPs. I will still have 3 GPP lineups but most of my investment this week will be in cash games. But, there is still money to be won so here are a few plays I like and my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week – Stack, Leon Edwards ($8,600) AND Donald Cerrone ($7,600)
Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone is never in a boring fight. Whether he wins or loses, his fights usually score high as a whole and the winner almost always pays off their price tag in DraftKings. I usually look for at least 100 total points if I stack a fight in cash and I think with this being a possible 5-rounds, it should score well over that. If Edwards win this fight, it is likely an early KO, and if that happens he will score very high. If Cerrone wins, he could lock up a submission or a knockout and that will easily 10x his price tag of $7.6k. But either way, you have the winner in your lineup and the guaranteed 30-90 win bonus points if you do stack. I think this fight will be fun as long as it lasts and there should be a good amount of points added up before one of these two get finished. If this does go 5 rounds, these two should still get over 100 total points with the pace Cowboy brings to the table.
GPP play of the week – Li Jingliang ($9,200)
Li Jingliang always puts on a show when he steps in the Octagon. He is a fast pace fighter who scores very well on DraftKings when he wins. I think he should be the better fighter wherever this fight ends up against Abe. I also think he can finish this fight on the feet or the ground and if that happens he would very likely pay off his high price tag of $9.2k. He is the 3rd most expensive fighter on the card and I think he has the highest ceiling. That is what we want in GPPs is a high ceiling, so that is why Jingliang is my GPP play of the week.
Underdog play of the week – Song Yadong ($7,900)
Song Yadong is my favorite DraftKings “underdog” this week. His betting line has shifted to him being a slight favorite at -120 but he is $400 cheaper than his opponent. I think saving that $400 is a good move in cash or GPP games so I like Yadong in all formats. I think Yadong will look to keep this fight on the feet and hunt for that KO win. If he does get the win, I think he should easily pay off that price tag and get at least 10x.
Fade of the week – Viviane Pereira ($8,800)
My main issue with Pereira is that she is too expensive. At $8.8k, I want at least 88 points from her and I think she needs get a finish to do that. I don’t see that happening and neither does Vegas with a +617 ITD line. She does not strike at a high enough pace or land enough takedowns to score 88 points in my opinion. In her 2 UFC wins she held her opponent against the fence for a good portion of the fight and no points are being scored when that happens. If she does that again here, there is no way she even comes close to 88 points even with a win. I will have a full fade on Pereira this week and I will pay up for other favorites instead.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on every fight, my personal strategies & recommendations, and my pick prediction for every fight then you can find that under the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
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