KSW 44 takes place Saturday, June 9 at Ergo Arena in Gdansk-Sopot, Poland. The offshore sportsbooks recently released the opening odds for the fight card, and here they are along with my thoughts on them.
KSW 44 Opening Odds
Karol Bedorf -230
Mariusz Pudzianowski +170
Dawid Gralka -400
Sebastian Przybysz +280
Michal Materla -490
Martin Zawada +330
Paul Redmond -120
Gracjan Szadzinski-120
Filip Wolanski -175
Daniel Torres +135
Chris Fields -150
Wagner Prado +110
Kleber Koike Erbst -290
Marian Ziolkowski +210
Erko Jun -310
Tomasz Oswiecinski +230
Lukasz Rajewski -150
Leo Zulic +110
My initial thoughts on the KSW 44 opening odds.
– It’s hard not to favor Bedorf (14-3) in this main event against Pudzianowski (12-5). Even though Bedorf was knocked out in his last fight and hasn’t fought since late 2016, you can’t forget he was on an eight-fight win streak before that. At 34, he has age on his side in this one against Pudzianowski, who is 41. Pudz is on a three-fight win streak and it’s nice to see him back on track after getting stopped a couple times, but he’s still so much older here and less durable. There probably isn’t any value in Bedorf at this kind of line, but I still think he should be able to win this fight, though we have seen some funny things happen in Pudz’ fights before.
– I have never been high on Fields (12-7-1) and I wasn’t surprised to see the early betting action come in on Prado (13-3) to flip the line. Fields is on a two-fight win streak but he had a long losing streak before that and I just don’t trust him. Prado, a UFC vet, has won five of his last six fights by knockout, and I think he should have been favored to win this fight from the get-go.
– I think Materla (25-6) should be the favorite against Zawada (28-14-1), but it’s hard to be too confident in Materla at this sort of line considering he just lost to Scott Askham in a similar spot as a big favorite. That fight wasn’t too long ago and Materla was knocked out in it, while Zawada picked up a knockout win on the same card. Materla probably does bounce back with a win here, but I wouldn’t blame anyone for taking a flier on the dog considering the circumstances.
– Despite Redmond (14-6) being on a three-fight win streak at the moment, this is a guy who I’ll always fade due to past performances where he looked awful. Szadzinski (7-2) has won his last two fights by knockout and is the hometown fighter in this bout. At a pick ’em price I’d go with Szadinski to get the win here as I’d be looking to fade Redmond against anyone with some talent.
– I don’t know how anyone could bet on this Jun (0-0) vs. Oswiecinski (1-0) fight as both guys have minimal amounts of MMA experience. The opening line was a bit ridiculous considering Jun has no pro fights so I think the early bettors who got Oswiecinski at a big dog price were probably on to something, though in my opinion this one is a total pass due to lack of experience.
