UFC 225 takes place Saturday, June 9 at United Center in Chicago, Illinois. The offshore sportsbooks recently opened up the full odds for the card, and here they are along with my thoughts.
UFC 225 Opening Odds
Robert Whittaker -150
Yoel Romero +110
Rafael dos Anjos -190
Colby Covington +150
Holly Holm -175
Megan Anderson +135
Tai Tuivasa -265
Andrei Arlovski +185
Mike Jackson -280
CM Punk +200
Alistair Overeem -140
Curtis Blaydes +100
Claudia Gadelha -400
Carla Esparza +280
Mirsad Bektic -175
Ricardo Lamas +135
Rashad Coulter -190
Chris De La Rocha +150
Anthony Smith -270
Rashad Evans +190
Joseph Benavidez -260
Sergio Pettis +180
Charles Olivera -185
Clay Guida +145
Dan Ige -260
Mike Santiago +180
And my thoughts on UFC 225’s opening odds:
– This card is absolutely stacked, so let’s start with the two title fights. Both the middleweight and interim welterweight title bouts should be excellent fights where the dog is live in both bouts. In the main event, Whittaker (19-4) looks to make his first title defense against Romero (13-2), who he won the interim belt from last year before being promoted to full champion. Whittaker showed in the first Romero fight that he has the cardio edge and his takedown game was on point, but after missing almost a year and having many health issues it’s really hard to trust him. Romero is over 40 but the guy is fighting at an elite level and his recent KO win over Luke Rockhold proved how dominant he really is. Despite Whittaker being the younger fighter, I think Romero is absolutely a live dog here.
– As for the co-main, RDA (28-9) is looking to become a rare two-division champion in the UFC when he takes on Covington (13-1). Once again, the dog is live here. As well-rounded as RDA is, he’s still going to be outsized by bigger welterweights which is exactly what Covington is. Covington’s going to be at a big striking disadvantage here but he will have the edge in wrestling, so it makes it an interesting fight. I can see why RDA is favored as he’s the more complete fighter, but you can’t count Covington out of this one.
– Elsewhere on the main card, Holm (11-4) takes on Anderson (8-2) in a featherweight contest. Although Holm has more experience against high-level competition, once again I view Anderson as a live dog here. Anderson will be the younger fighter in this fight as well as the bigger fighter and I don’t like how Holm has looked at 145lbs. You can’t count out Holm, but this is probably dog-or-pass.
– Over on the prelims, Overeem (43-16, 1 NC) takes on Blaydes (9-1, 1 NC). Although Overeem is the bigger name and has more experience, Blaydes has been super impressive as of late and looks like a future champion. Overeem will have the striking advantage here but Blaydes has the wrestling edge as well as the more durable chin. I wasn’t surprised when I saw the line flip in Blaydes’ favor.
– Deep on the prelims is a lightweight bout between Oliveira (22-8, 1 NC) and Guida (34-17) and it’s a fight where I believe the line should be flipped in Guida’s favor. Oliveira took the fight on very short notice and Guida has been looking great as of late. I know Guida has terrible submission defense but Oliveira can be broken and I think Guida can break him with his grinding pressure.
