Gegard Mousasi
Age: 32
Nationality: Dutch
MMA Record: 43-6-2
Bellator Record: 1-0
Notable Wins: Dan Henderson, Chris Weidman, Mark Hunt, Ronaldo Souza
Notable Losses: Ronaldo Souza, King Mo Lawal, Lyoto Machida
Last Fight: Decision win over Alexander Shlemenko
Fighter Profile: One of the most well-rounded and complete middleweights in the game, Mousasi was closing in on a UFC middleweight title shot with five-straight wins — including a brutal knockout over former UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman — when he became a free agent and signed with Bellator. The former Strikeforce and DREAM champion moved on to Bellator and in his debut match he took on Alexander Shlemenko, winning a very close and controversial decision and getting a title shot against Bellator middleweight champion Rafael Carvalho. Many weren’t impressed with Mousasi in the Shlemenko fight, but you have to remember he injured his eye early in the fight and it clearly affected his performance. Mousasi is an excellent striker and his ground game is very solid as well making him one of the most dangerous fighters in MMA, and with a win over Carvalho he could set himself up nicely for a superfight against Bellator welterweight champion Rory MacDonald.
Rafael Carvalho
Age: 31
Nationality: Brazilian
MMA Record: 15-1
Bellator Record: 6-0
Notable Wins: Melvin Manhoef, Alessio Sakara, Joe Schilling
Notable Losses: None
Last Fight: TKO win over Alessio Sakara
Fighter Profile: The Bellator middleweight champion, Carvalho has really excelled in the promotion since debuting in 2014, going undefeated at 6-0 and winning the title with an upset knockout win over Brandon Halsey. Since that signature win, Carvalho has kept the winning ways alive with two wins over Melvin Manhoef and another one against Alessio Sakara. Carvalho is a deadly striker with pinpoint accuracy and vicious knockout power, but we don’t know a whole lot about the rest of his game. Right now he’s looking like he’s one of the top middleweights in the world, and a win over Gegard Mousasi would absolutely show he’s one of the top-10 fighters at 185lbs in the world.
Fight Breakdown: This should be a really good fight for the Bellator middleweight title between two excellent strikers. When this fight is on the feet either fighter can win as both men are very accurate and powerful with their strikes. To me the difference in this fight is on the ground. I just feel like Mousasi is going to have a huge edge if this fight hits the ground. We don’t know much about Carvalho’s ground game, but I don’t think there’s many middleweights who could survive against Mousasi on the mat. I just feel like the longer this fight goes the more it favors Mousasi, who tends to get stronger as the fight goes on, and eventually I just see Mousasi wearing Carvalho out and finishing him within the five rounds. I think there’s a good chance the fight ends via TKO due to strikes though I could see a submission as well. Either way I expect Mousasi to win this fight and become Bellator’s new middleweight kingpin after this one.
Prediction: Mousasi via TKO
