UFC Fight Night 130 takes place Sunday, May 27 at Echo Arena in Liverpool England. The opening odds were recently released by the offshore sportsbooks and here they are:
UFC Fight Night 130 Opening Odds
Stephen Thompson -165
Darren Till +125
Neil Magny -380
Craig White +260
Jason Knight -230
Makwan Amirkhani +170
Arnold Allen -245
Mads Burnell +175
Tom Breese -260
Dan Kelly +180
Eric Spicely -260
Darren Stewart +180
Manny Bermudez -245
Davey Grant +175
Nordine Taleb -190
Claudio Silva +150
Carlo Pedersoli Jr. -210
Brad Scott +160
Molly McCann -265
Gillian Robertson +185
Elias Theodorou -350
Trevor Smith +250
Lina Lansberg -185
Gina Mazany +145
And here are my initial thoughts on the UFC Fight Night 130 opening odds:
– I’ve given my thoughts on the main event numerous time on The Parting Shot Podcast, but safe to say I like Thompson (14-2-1) to beat Till (16-0-1). Thompson has been in the Octagon with far superior and more experienced fighters than Till and the only man to beat him since 2012 is the current UFC welterweight champion Tyron Woodley. As good as Till looked against Donald Cerrone, there were fights prior to that where he looked pretty bad in and a lot of people are forgetting that. I just feel like Thompson is a bad stylistic matchup for Till and I am pretty confident that he can go in there, outstrike Till, and take home a decision. Safe to say I think there’s value on him as a short favorite.
– I feel like the line on Magny (20-6) over White (14-7) is a bit short as I believe Magny should be a bigger favorite, and I wasn’t surprised to see early betting action come in on him. Magny is a top-10 welterweight who has a tremendous skillset and a lot of experience at the highest level of the sport, not to mention he had a full camp to prepare for this date. White took this fight on short notice and although he looked great in Cage Warriors, Magny is a massive step up. I think Magny dominates this fight and if the line ever drops back to the opening number there would be huge value, though I expect him to close in the -600 range.
– Another strong lean I have is Taleb (14-4) over Silva (11-1). Taleb has looked great at times in the UFC and has really started to show off his KO power in recent fights. Silva is a good fighter and he beat Leon Edwards in his last fight, but that was four years ago, and you have to fade anyone coming off of that long of a layoff. I think Taleb will probably finish this fight and I expect the line to get higher on him as this opener was just too low.
– I was hoping Pedersoli Jr. (10-1) would be an underdog against Scott (11-5) since he took the fight on short notice, but the oddsmakers weren’t fooled and they favored the right guy here. Although it’s true Scott has more UFC experience and has fought better competition, I’ve just never really been that impressed with him. Pedersoli Jr. is a really good prospect who has looked great on his way to the Octagon. The line has started to drop on him as bettors are thinking there’s some value on Scott, but I think Pedersoli Jr. takes this one and there could be some really good value if the line keeps falling.
– For dogs, I think Mazany (5-1) has a good chance to beat Lansberg (7-3). Let’s be honest, neither of these women have lit a fire in the UFC, but I just feel like Mazany is a bit more durable and has the better cardio in this matchup. I think Mazany can grind on Lansberg and take home a decision. I’m not eyeing too many dogs on this card, so Mazany certainly stands out here.
