Lyoto Machida
Age: 39
Nationality: Brazilian
MMA Record: 23-8
UFC Record: 15-8
Notable Wins: Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Gegard Mousasi, Rashad Evans
Notable Losses: Luke Rockhold, Yoel Romero, Chris Weidman
Last Fight: Decision win over Eryk Anders
Fighter Profile: One of the most accurate strikers in UFC history, Machida has a Hall of Fame resume that includes a title run as the UFC light heavyweight champion and then a not-so-good run as a middleweight. The karate expert owns some of the greatest highlights in UFC history with his signature KO wins over the likes of Rashad Evans and Randy Couture, but in recent years has gone on a downward spiral that includes three stoppage losses in his last four fights as well as a failed USADA drug test. Machida showed in his last fight against Anders that he can still turn back the clock from time to time, but overall he is on a big decline and his days as an elite fighter at 205 or 185 are over.
Vitor Belfort
Age: 41
Nationality: Brazilian
MMA Record: 26-13, 1 NC
UFC Record: 15-9, 1 NC
Notable Wins: Luke Rockhold, Dan Henderson, Michael Bisping
Notable Losses: Chris Weidman, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, Gegard Mousasi
Last Fight: Decision win over Nate Marquardt
Fighter Profile: A legend of MMA, Belfort has had success fighting as a heavyweight, light heavyweight and middleweight but based on recent fights it’s obvious he’s done as a top fighter. The decision win over Marquadt notwithstanding, Belfort’s chin has looked very weak as of late and he has a hard time taking shots and carrying on with the fight. He has still turn back the clock at times as we saw with his TKO win over Henderson a few years back but overall he’s a guy who has very little durability and mediocre cardio. You can’t completely count out Belfort for the first five minutes of a fight as he still has that speed and power, but once his gas tank is up he’s ripe for the picking by his opponents, and it’s clear his days as a top guy are over, especially with USADA’s stringent drug testing now in play.
Fight Breakdown: I think this fight plays out very much like many of the fights in Belfort’s career where he starts off strong but fades as the fights goes on and loses. Belfort has about five minutes here to knock Machida out and even considering Machida’s declining chin I believe he should be evasive enough to avoid Belfort’s big shots early on. And once the first round is done, it should be easy sailing for Machida to do what he does best, and that’s staying on the outside and picking apart Belfort with technical, accurate strikes. I would not be surprised if Machida was able to eventually finish this fight, but based on how he looked in the Anders fight, I think Machida plays it safe and stays out of trouble as he outvolumes Belfort in the striking department and wins a decision.
Prediction: Lyoto Machida via decision
