The opening odds are officially out for a few upcoming non-title five-round main events. Here are my initial reactions to the opening odds opened by the offshore and Euro sportsbooks.
UFC Fight Night 130: Thompson vs. Till
Sunday, May 27 at Echo Arena in Liverpool, England
Stephen Thompson -165
Darren Till +125
Initial thoughts: I was hoping Thompson would be the underdog here due to all the hype on Till, but the oddsmakers were too smart and did indeed peg Thompson as the favorite. Though I think Till is a fine fighter, I feel like Thompson is a huge step up in competition. Thompson has been more tested in five-round fights and we’ve seen his chin and cardio hold up well. He’s also the better striker in this fight. Till has finishing power and could catch Thompson, but overall I really like Thompson to win this fight and feel like there was value at this opening line.
UFC Fight Night 131: Rivera vs. Moraes
Friday, June 1 at Adirondack Bank Center in Utica, New York
Jimmie Rivera -190
Marlon Moraes +150
Initial thoughts: This is a really good fight and a really competitive one on paper. As good as Rivera is and as long as his win streak is, Moraes is a very dangerous opponent and I feel like these odds are a bit wide. I’d peg it closer to a Pick ’em type of bout with a slight lean towards Rivera. But based on these opening odds I actually feel like there’s some value in Moraes. I’ll be watching closely to see how this line moves in the coming months.
UFC Fight Night 134: Oezdemir vs. Shogun
Sunday, July 22 at Barclaycard Arena in Hamburg, Germany
Volkan Oezdemir -230
Mauricio Rua +170
Initial thoughts: I definitely side with Oezdemir in this one and feel like the opening odds are a bit light as I believe he could be a bigger favorite in this bout. Yes, Oezdemir was finished by Daniel Cormier in his last fight, but there’s no shame in that. Rua has won three-straight fights but his level of competition has been sub-par at best. As well, Rua’s chin has not held up very well in recent years. I think Oezdemir uses his huge KO power and finishes Rua in this fight. I’d expect the odds to get steamed up on him based on this low opener.
***CANCELLED***
UFC Fight Night 129: Usman vs. Ponzinibbio
Saturday, May 19 at Movistar Arena in Santiago, Chile
Kamaru Usman -180
Santiago Ponzinibbio +140
Initial thoughts: Unfortunately this main event fight been Usman and Ponzinibbio has been cancelled. Ponzinibbio pulled out with an injury and now Usman awaits an opponent. Hopefully the UFC can find someone for him to fight so he can remain on this card. As far as the opening odds for this go, I liked Usman at these odds. I felt like he could have taken Ponzinibbio down and controlled him for at least three of the rounds, though the fight would have been interesting had it went to the fourth and fifth rounds. But, alas, it was not meant to be.
