UFC Fight Night 128: Barboza vs. Lee
Date: April 21, 2018
Arena: Boardwalk Hall
City: Atlantic City, NJ

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Atlantic City, NJ with UFC Fight Night 128: Barboza vs. Lee. If you’re considering wagering on this fight card, there are many good plays to put your money down on. These, however, are fights I think you should skip at the sportsbook on Saturday night.

My Fights to AVOID betting are:

Welterweight bout: Ryan LaFlare (-150) vs. Alex Garcia (+130)

Gabe’s Thoughts: This is a rare ‘winner versus loser’ matchup in the UFC’s welterweight division, though the fighter coming off a loss is the betting favorite heading into this one, while Garcia heads into the bout riding a two fight winning streak with two impressive finishes. I see this as being more or less a coin-flip match, so I see no real betting value in either fighter. I can’t fault anybody for taking a shot with Garcia at +130, however for me personally, the juice is not enough to make it worth my squeeze. I think there is a decent chance he hands LaFlare his second consecutive defeat, but he fails to find the finish, I think LaFlare is more likely to win on the judges’ scorecards, though it would not shock me to see Garcia edge out a decision.

Gabe’s Call: Garcia by T/KO (punches, 1:06 round 1)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

Welterweight bout: Tony Martin (-250) vs. Keita Nakamura (+220)

Gabe’s Thoughts: Martin is stepping up to the UFC’s welterweight division following a split decision loss to Olivier Aubin-Mercier at 155 pounds. I think this is a good matchup for Martin and I do favor him to get his hand raised, however i don’t quite agree with his current offering price of -250. I feel we are looking at a “dog or pass” situation here, and I believe it is best to take a pass. I don’t want to betting against Martin in his 170 pound debut, as there is a good chance he could look phenomenal in this weight class. I can’t blame anybody for playing K-Taro here, but I just can’t do it. This is going to have to be a fight I skip at the sportsbook this weekend and suggest you do the same.

Gabe’s Call: Martin by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID

 


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