Big Marley’s UFC Fight Night 127 Draft Kings Fantasy Breakdown
If you are just starting out in DFS MMA here are some common terms and their meanings that you will hear every week along with the general rules of MMA DFS:
GPP = Guaranteed Prize Pool (aka tournaments where the top ~25% of the field get paid)
Cash Games = H2Hs, 50/50s, Double-Ups
Stacking = Using both fighters from a fight in the same lineup (typically cash games only)
Over/Under Weight = Your percent of exposure to a fighter compared to the projected field percentage.
Significant Strikes +0.5 Pts
Advance +3 Pts
Takedown +5 Pts
Reversal/Sweep +5 Pts
Knockdown +10 Pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win +90 Pts
2nd Round Win +70 Pts
3rd Round Win +45 Pts
4th Round Win +40 Pts
5th Round Win +40 Pts
Decision Win +30 Pts
This week the betting lines were late to come out and DraftKings released their salaries before lines were out on several fights. When this happens, there is usually value to be had on DraftKings so you always want to look out for those as safer cash game plays but also know they will be highly owned in tournaments as well. We also had the Marshman/Scott fight cancelled so of course be sure to keep those guys out of your lineups. Here are a few plays I like this week and one guy I will be completely avoiding in my lineups:
Cash Game play of the week – Magomed Ankalaev ($9,200)
Magomed is the biggest favorite of the week currently sitting at -650 but on DraftKings he is the 3rd most expensive fighter. That’s almost reason enough for him to be in my cash games right there if I can afford him but I like the matchup to score highly as well so he is my favorite play this week in DraftKings if I have the salary to afford him. I think on the feet Magomed should have a huge advantage and the ability to KO Paul Craig but I don’t think I am too worried about Craig’s ground game if it does hit the mat. I think Magomed should have the advantage where ever this fight goes and it should be up to him to control where the fight goes as well. At $9.2k I will be locking him in my cash lineup and I expect him to be the highest owned fighter on the card in tournaments.
GPP Fight of the Week – Nasrat Haqparast vs Nad Narimani
I would give a winner as the “GPP Play of the Week” here but I actually like both sides of this fight and I do think it will be low owned in GPPs so I am going to just recommend getting a piece of this fight in your GPP lineups on whichever fighter you like to win. If you are making multiple lineups I think this is a good fight to get both fighters in lineups and hope for a high score. This is the mid-range fight with Haqparast at $8.3k and Narimani at $7.9k so I think either guy will pay off their DK salary and whoever gets their hand raised could end up on the winning lineup.
Underdog play of the week – Charles Byrd ($7,300)
This is the easy plug and play this week. Currently, the betting line on this fight is -110 for both fighters but on DraftKings we get Byrd at $7.3k while Phillips is much more expensive at $8.9k. When I see value like that it is too hard to pass up on and I have to take it where I can get it. Byrd should have a huge advantage on the ground and the ground is the best way to rack up DK points so I will be rooting for the takedowns. If he can get the takedowns, then I think he will finish this fight with a submission and find himself on the winning lineup. Phillips on the other hand makes for a great GPP play if you do think he will be the winner of this fight via KO. Everyone will see the line value in this fight and that will make Byrd super popular in tournaments so if Phillips can get the KO then that will kill close to half the field with their Byrd lineups and the people with Phillips will have a lot of points with ~10% ownership associated with him.
Fade of the week – Paul Craig ($7,000)
The one fighter I will for sure have in 0% of my personal lineups this week is Paul Craig. I mentioned the odds value in this fight earlier with Magomed Ankalaev and that is another reason I want to stay away from Craig here because I can get two guys for cheaper with better shots of winning. I think a submission is the only shot Craig has in this fight and I will take my chances on that not happening and he will be my fade of the week for UFC London.