UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros

Date: February 18
Arena: Frank Erwin Center
City: Austin, TX

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed back to Austin, TX for the third time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros. The 12 fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 7 p.m. and the main card will get going on the same channel at 9 p.m.

Here are my prop plays…

Thiago Alves (-150) vs. Curtis Millender (+140)

Millender by T/KO (+570) 1u to win 5.7u

I favor Millender in this matchup and think there is a good chance he wins it by T/KO or decision, and I like the return on the T/KO prop more than the Decision (+275), which makes this an easy play for me. Like many, I could see Millender finishing Alves with a headkick, but I could also see him putting the Brazilian away with his hands.

Sage Northcutt (-310) vs. Thibault Gouti (+280)

Northcutt Inside the Distance (-147) 2.94u to win 2u

I see Northcutt winning this fight 98% of the time. In victory, I think he finishes the fight 75% of the time. At -147, I love this prop for a play, so I am betting double my normal amount for prop plays.

Geoffrey Neal (-185) vs. Brian Camozzi (+170)

Neal in Round One (+250) 1u to win 2.5u

Camozzi in Round Three (+1650) .5u to win 8.25u

I think the most likely outcome to this welterweight matchup is Neal defeating Camozzi by first round by either T/KO or submission. However, if the promotional newcomer fails to put Camozzi away early in front of his home crowd, I think there is a fair chance that he will gas and get finished himself late in the fight, which is why I am hedging with Camozzi in Round Three. I expect Neal to get the job done in the first round, but if Camozzi manages to survive, then his superior cardio will make the difference and he will likely earn a late stoppage and ultimately his first victory inside the Octagon. Camozzi has his back against the wall heading into this one, while Neal looks to make a major impression in his UFC debut.

Lucie Pudilova (-130) vs. Sarah Moras (+125)

Pudilova by T/KO (+1100) 2u to win 22u

I believe Pudilova has a good chance of finishing this fight by T/KO. I favor her in this matchup and could see her winning by T/KO or decision. I think the T/KO prop holds ridiculous value at +1100, so I am going to take a shot at it with two units, which is double my normal betting size for prop plays.

Brandon Davis (-165) vs. Steven Peterson (+155)

Peterson by Decision (+350) 1 to win 3.5u

I think this 145 pound contest scheduled for three rounds hits the judges’ scorecards for a decision more often than not, and more often than not, I see Peterson walking away with the victory. At +350, I find this prop to be a tough one to pass up.


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