Plays for UFC Fight Night 126
UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros
Date: February 18
Arena: Frank Erwin Center
City: Austin, TX
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed back to Austin, TX for the third time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 126: Cowboy vs. Medeiros. The 12 fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 7 p.m. and the main card will get going on the same channel at 9 p.m.
Here are my plays…
Welterweight bout: Donald Cerrone (-110) vs. Yancy Medeiros (+100)
Gabe's Thoughts: I believe Cerrone is the superior mixed martial artist of the two and has a big advantage both on the feet and on the mat. I think he should be a -350 betting favorite, so I see great value in him at his current asking price of -110. I was big on Jorge Masvidal and Darren Till as underdogs against Cerrone, but I think this is a favorable matchup for “Cowboy” and I see him getting his hand raised, ultimately snapping his three fight losing skid, which includes a controversial decision loss to Robbie Lawler. I believe Cerrone holds the advantages everywhere in this contest. I see him having a big edge on the feet, and if either fighter decides to take things to the mat, I think they will be in Cerrone’s world, as I believe he is likely to finish this fight by submission both from top and bottom positions. On the feet, I think he i capable of winning both by T/KO or by outpointing the Hawaiian over the course of five rounds for the unanimous decision victory. I believe this is Cerrone’s easiest fight since John Makdessi and I think this one may be easier. “Easy” may not be the best word to use, but I find it to be the best fitting. At the near coin-flip price of -110, I love Cerrone for a play in this contest.
Gabe's Call: Cerrone by Submission (triangle choke, 3:23 round 1)
Gabe's Recommended Play: Cerrone (-110) 9.9u to win 9u
Flyweight bout: Joby Sanchez (-140) vs. Roberto Sanchez (+130)
Gabe's Thoughts: This is a striker versus grappler matchup in which I favor the grappler, who happens to be the betting underdog at +130. I think Sanchez should be a -140 to -160 betting favorite here, so I’ll take a shot on him at underdog odds. I see Sanchez finding success with his takedowns in this bout, and I think there is a decent chance that he finishes it on the mat, but if not, I do favor him to earn the victory on the judges’ scorecards. In a three round fight, as long as he does not get knocked out, I favor his superior grappling to benefit him in either edging or dominating at least two out of three rounds of this fight, should it play out for all 15 minutes.
Gabe's Call: Roberto Sanchez by Submission (rear naked choke, 2:13 round 2)
Gabe's Recommended Play: Sanchez (+130) 4u to win 5.2u