Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the main event of UFC 220 as Stipe Miocic defends his heavyweight championship against Francis Ngannou. This is Francis Ngannou’s first main event and first time fighting for the UFC heavyweight championship.
Stipe Miocic (Record: 17-2, +165 Underdog, Power Ranking: A+)
The 35-year-old lifetime Ohio native has been on a tear winning his last five fights since a decision loss to Junior dos Santos in 2014. He enters Saturday’s title fight on the back of a knockout victory over dos Santos in their rematch in May 2017. If Miocic beats dos Santos, he will break the record for consecutive title defenses at heavyweight with three.
Miocic is one of the most well-rounded athletes in the heavyweight division. In addition to wrestling, he played baseball in college even drawing interest from some Major League Baseball teams. In regards to MMA, he has an amateur boxing background competing in the Golden Gloves competition. Miocic is a good striker having solid hands and works a very high pace for a heavyweight landing a whopping 5.15 significant strikes a minute. In comparison, he’s only absorbing 3.30 significant strikes per minute with 61% striking defense. Miocic mixes his striking with wrestling scoring over two takedowns every 15 minutes inside the octagon. Miocic isn’t the division’s hardest puncher, but he moves very well and has shown an ability to avoid taking much damage. Miocic has a solid motor overall and can even work a decent pace late in fights. On the flip side, he can be hurt by opponents. He was stunned by Overeem just a couple bouts ago, so that is something to watch for moving forward.
Francis Ngannou (Record: 11-1, -175 Favorite, Power Ranking: A+)
On a six fight winning streak to start his UFC career, Francis Ngannou has quickly risen to be a real threat to Stipe Miocic’s crown. He’s finished all six of his UFC opponents with his last four victories all coming within the opening two minutes of those bouts.
The Cameroon born heavyweight began training in boxing in his native Cameroon before moving to France at the age of 22. He was homeless for a period of time living in the streets of Paris as he picked up odd jobs here and there before he joined up at MMA Factory and developed into a fighter. He started fighting professionally in 2013 and never turned back. The 6’4” heavyweight has one of the longest reaches in MMA at 83” inches. His output is modest for a heavyweight at 3.41 significant strikes per minute. He has heavy power in his hands (7career knockouts), but he’s not a fighter who looks to brawl. He is fairly patient timing his opportunities. When he senses a finish, he’ll go for it. From an athletic standpoint, he’s about as good as there is in the UFC. He’s muscular, extremely strong, and agile. He’s a fighter that can do things that other fighters cannot do inside the Octagon. Most of his finishes have come early in fights; Ngannou has not been pushed yet so it’s a complete unknown what kind of pace he’d fight at if pressed into the championship rounds. His takedown defense is decent, but it’s not elite so he can be taken down to the mat by wrestling focused fighters. On the feet, his chin has rarely been tested. His striking defense is excellent absorbing just 1.46 significant strikes per minute with 60% striking defense. He was staggered by Curtis Blaydes in his second UFC fight, but recovered quickly and ended up winning by doctor stoppage. That’s the only time he has been challenged. Perhaps that was a rare moment of weakness or a fluke. Until he is tested again, it will be hard to tell how he deals with adversity.
Matchup
In perhaps the best UFC heavyweight fight in over five years, Stipe Miocic defends his championship against surging contender Francis Ngannou at UFC 220 in Boston, Massachusetts. Both fighters are on the best form of their careers with a combined 11 straight finishes in the UFC. Given both of these fighters propensity to finish, I expect this fight to stay on the feet. Miocic is the better traditional boxer with higher volume. Ngannou is the much more powerful puncher with the ability to land the spectacular. In this bout with so much on the line, I expect both fighters to have a quick feeling out process before moving in for opportunities. I expect Miocic to attempt to be the aggressor in this bout. He has to make up three inches of reach and he’s the higher volume striker, so I expect him to try to set the pace. Ngannou is much more calculated and look for him to land the big shot on the counter. Ngannou can take Overeem’s game plan and look to capitalize on quick counters when Miocic comes forward. Ngannou has such heavy power and his speed to land I see being just too much. Miocic is now 35 years old and has already shown chin durability issues. When Ngannou lands clean, he’s going to hurt Miocic and from there it will be just a matter of time before he’s able to get the finish. Look for Ngannou to be the first African born champion in the UFC and to do so by knockout. With just a 10 cent difference between Ngannou ML and Ngannou Inside the Distance, there’s little incentive to bet the ITD line. Ngannou ML is worth consideration as his combination of finishing and avoiding big strikes are unrivaled.
