UFC 188 Date: June 13, 2015 Arena: Mexico City Arena City: Mexico City, Mexico The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Mexico City, Mexico for the second time in promotional history this Saturday night (June 13th, 2015) with UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum. The stacked 11-fight card will kick off on UFC Fight Pass at 7pm, with preliminary action continuing on FOX Sports 1 at 8pm and the main card getting going at 10pm on Pay Per View. If interested in wagering on this parlay, all betting lines will be made available at Several Bookmakerss. Here are my live dogs for UFC 188: Heavyweight title bout: Cain Velasquez (-500) vs Fabricio Werdum (+435) Gabe’s Thoughts: Werdum is tough to count out in this contest, which is why I don’t agree with the current betting odds. While I favor Velasquez to get his hand raised, I think there is a decent amount of value at Werdum at +435. I think he can win this fight on the feet, though chances are slim, and of course I think he can win it on the mat. If the lines were tighter, I would consider this as a fight to avoid, but at the current odds, I think it’s worth making a value play on the Brazilian underdog. Gabe’s Call: Velasquez by T/KO (punches, 3:01 round 3) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Werdum (+435) 1.45u to win 6.3u Women’s Strawweight bout bout: Angela Hill (+255) vs Tecia Torres (-280) Gabe’s Thoughts: Simply put, I think Hill outpoints Torres on the feet and Torres could get frustrated enough to shoot for takedowns, which I expect Hill to stuff in a closely contested match-up where she does just enough to walk away with the victory. Gabe’s Call: Hill by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Hill (+255) 2.75u to win 7.01u Lightweight bout: Drew Dober (-145) vs Efrain Escudero (+135) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Escudero is the superior mixed martial artist heading into this match-up and should be a -230 favorite entering the contest, considering the hometown advantage. If the fight were in Vegas, I’d say -180 to -200. At his current underdog tag of +135 in his native Mexico, I love Escudero for a play, as I think his line holds a world of value. Normally I would not go big on Escudero, regardless of the opponent, as he has been known to mentally check out of fights. However, it seems he has turned a tide and has a newfound passion for the sport. I believe he is very hungry and eager to pick up a win in Mexico City, and with former UFC Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson in his corner, alongwith the MMA Lab’s Jon Crouch, I think his confidence and mental focus will be at an all-time high and he will ultimately get his hand raised. Gabe’s Call: Escudero by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Escudero (+135) 5u to win 6.75u Lightweight bout: Francisco Trevino (+400) vs Johnny Case (-450) Gabe’s Thoughts: I think the betting odds for this fight have gotten ridiculous. In short, I think this is going to be a close fight and I slightly lean towards the Mexican to get his hand raised in Mexico City. Gabe’s Call: Trevino by Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) Gabe’s Recommended Play: Trevino (+400) 2.5u to win 10u
