Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the main event of UFC on Fox 26 in Winnipeg as former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos takes on former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler at UFC on Fox 26.
Rafael dos Anjos (Record: 27-9, -125 Favorite, Power Ranking: B+)
The former UFC lightweight champion has done well since moving up to the welterweight division. He’s won his last two fights over ranked (at the time) welterweights Tarec Saffiedine and more recently Neil Magny. His main event matchup with Robbie Lawler is by far his biggest test to date in this weight class.
A 3rd degree black in belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Rafael dos Anjos has not only evolved, but improved significantly over the last couple years. His training at Kings MMA alongside the likes of Beneil Dariush and Fabricio Werdum has been a big reason for the improvement in results. Rafael Cordeiro has been a catalyst finding holes for his guys to improve on. Dos Anjos footwork and cage control have seen a huge upgrade. Dos Anjos no longer chases his opponent around the octagon, but moves laterally to cut his opponents off and have them fighting off their back foot. It’s this high pressure style which has caused all of his recent opponents’ problems. Dos Anjos combines that with heavy left kicks and an excellent left hand. In his fight with Anthony Pettis, he combined this high energy style on the feet with powerful wrestling securing eight takedowns in the fight. Conditioning is the key to being able to employ this style of fighting. It has certainly helped that recent opponents were not a threat in the wrestling department allowing dos Anjos to employ his optimal style of aggression on the feet.
Robbie Lawler (Record: 28-11, +105 Underdog, Power Ranking: A-)
The former welterweight champion has been training in mixed martial arts for nearly 20 years. Living in Iowa as a child, he started training with Pat Milletich at Milletich Fighting Systems. He’s been fighting professionally since 2001 and doing so in the biggest promotions in North America. Since re-joining the UFC in 2013, Lawler has had a career renaissance. He’s fought some of the top fighters in the world and had been world champion. After beating Johny Hendricks to become welterweight champion in 2014, he defended his championship two times; a fifth round stoppage over Rory Macdonald and a decision win over Carlos Condit before dropping the title to Tyron Woodley. With a victory over dos Anjos, Lawler could once again find himself in the title picture.
Longtime fighter Robbie Lawler has had one of the more remarkable runs in MMA history. He certainly was a solid fighter in Elite XC and Strikeforce, but what he’s been able to do in the UFC is really tremendous. He’s fought five round wars with the top fighters in the division several times now. He’s willing to fight toe to toe with the best in the sport and has shown an ability to take over when it matters most; in the championship rounds. Lawler, first and foremost, is a striker and a very good one at that. He combines punches and kicks well landing in combination. He’s got fluidity about his game making him very fun to watch. He may not throw with as much volume as someone like Carlos Condit, but he’s accurate and decisive. His ability to turn it on in round five had been the difference between him retaining and losing the title during his reign. He certainly is vulnerable defensively. During his UFC career, he’s absorbed just as many strikes as he’s landed. He’s been hurt in a few of his recent bouts including his knockout loss to Woodley and being staggered by Donald Cerrone.
Matchup
The UFC on Fox 26 main event is a rare matchup of former champions from different weight classes as former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos takes on former welterweight champion Robbie Lawler. I expect this to be a high level, competitive contest. On the feet, both fighters combine punches and will look to control the action. Dos Anjos will certainly look to utilize kicks as that is an area in which he can exploit Lawler. On the flip side, Lawler has the heavier hands. Early on, look for dos Anjos to try to dictate the action and for Lawler to do his best work on the counter. As the fight wears on, I expect Lawler to take over as he begins to inflict damage. Lawler has proven over the course of his career just how effective he can be in the championship rounds of his bouts. In a competitive contest between fighters with similar striking volume, it will be that late surge that should give Lawler the victory. This is a bout to consider for live betting as Lawler could become a more significant underdog after the first couple of rounds. In terms of pre-fight wager, the total is set to over 2.5 (-155). Both of these fighters have proven to be quite durable. Outside of their respective title losses, neither fighter has been finished in under 2.5 rounds in over five years. This is a fight that should go into the championship rounds.
