Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the main event of UFC Fight Night 123 as Brian Ortega appears in his first UFC main event against veteran Cub Swanson.
Brian Ortega (Record: 12-0, -120 Favorite, Power Ranking: B+)
The Los Angeles-born featherweight has reeled off 12 straight wins to start his MMA career. In the UFC specifically, he has won his first five bouts with all of them ending inside the distance.
The Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Academy student has become one of the most dangerous submission fighters in MMA in just a couple of years in the world’s most prominent MMA organization. T-City as he is known has arguably the most dangerous guard in MMA and is a threat to secure a triangle choke any time he is on the mat. He’s also capable of securing various other neck chokes. It’s very difficult to go to the mat with Ortega given his submission prowess. On the feet, he’s fairly active with 3.63 significant strikes per minute. He’s been more active in his last couple bouts as he’s landed over 60 significant strikes in each of those bouts. Ortega has been out struck in most bouts and can have moments of inactivity. However, he has an ability to finish with each of his last four victories coming in the final round. Like featherweight champion Max Holloway, he tends to turn up the pace as the fight goes on making him especially lethal against tiring opponents.
Cub Swanson (Record: 25-7, +100 Underdog, Power Ranking: B+)
The long time Jackson’s MMA product is a veteran of both the WEC and the UFC. He’s fought the top featherweights in the world including Jose Aldo, Frankie Edgar, and Max Holloway. He’s won his four three bouts with most notably his victory over Doo Ho Choi that was widely considered the best fight of 2016.
The top five featherweight holds a black belt in both jiu-jitsu and judo. While he certainly is accomplished in the submission game, where he truly excels in MMA is with his boxing. Swanson has really good footwork and he combines that with an excellent striking arsenal. He has some of the best hands in the division. He strikes well in combination landing to both the body and the head. He’s got a really good MMA mind when it comes to his striking. He’s creative, yet calculated and is certainly capable of finishing with 15 of his 25 wins coming inside the distance. While Swanson is capable of securing takedowns, it is not a focal point of his fighting strategy. What Swanson wants to do is strike and if he’s able to do so, he’ll be successful against nearly all opponents in the division.
Matchup
Brian Ortega has had a tremendous rise in the rankings over the past year and now has his first top five opponent in Cub Swanson. This is a huge fight for both fighters as the winner is the likely number one contender for the featherweight championship. Neither fighter has ever fought for a UFC title so the stakes couldn’t be higher. On the feet, Swanson certainly has an advantage. He has more variety in his striking and does a better job of defending punches overall. He does tend to take risks in his bouts and has been clipped in bouts, but he recovers well having only been knocked out once in his career. If this fight stays standing and at distance, Swanson should outclass Ortega to win a decision. However, Ortega’s abilities on the mat and in scramble situations make this bout a lot more complicated. Ortega has a knack for finding submissions from a variety of positions. Of Swanson’s last three losses, all of them have come by submission. Given Ortega’s ability to turn up his game as rounds progress and propensity for submissions, there’s a real case to be made that Ortega can earn a submission victory in this bout. With each fighter having advantages in different areas of MMA, it makes for a compelling fight. It’s a bout that I’d recommend avoiding betting the moneyline pre-fight and then look in match, should Ortega be losing early. There’s a real opportunity for Ortega in the later rounds to be dangerous and to be so at significant plus money. In terms of props, Ortega by submission at +250 is the one that should get most consideration as well. With an eight year age difference, this certainly feels like it could be a scenario where the much younger Ortega makes his move to contendership utilizing the veteran Swanson to do so. Like most bouts in this scenario, it still requires the younger fighter to get the biggest win of his career in doing so. I refer to these type of bouts as “sink or swim” situations. On Saturday night, we’ll find out if Ortega will be swimming. If he’s able to swim, Max Holloway will be waiting on the other side.
