UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo II
Date: December 2
Arena: Little Caesars Arena
City: Detroit, MI
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is will be back in Detroit, MI for the second time in promotional history with UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo II. The stacked 13-fight card is set to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:15 p.m. ET, with the prelims continuing on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., and the main card getting going on Pay Per View at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
My Fights to AVOID betting are:
Light Heavyweight bout: Dominick Reyes (-470) vs. Jeremy Kimball (+375)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with Reyes being the betting favorite in this 205 pound contest, however I think he is being overvalued at his current offering price of -470. I believe he is a solid prospect in the division and am personally a fan of his, however I think Kimball is capable of winning this fight. The one advantage I feel I could give to Kimball is in cardio, so if Reyes fails to put him away early, we could see Kimball taking over in rounds two and three and potentially steal a decision. I would favor Reyes to have enough gas in the tank to win the second round, but if this fight hits the judges’ scorecards, I do in fact feel that things will come down to the second round. I think Kimball should be a +280 underdog in this bout, so while I see value in him at his current offering price of +375, I am ultimately going to pass on making a play here. To conclude, I think Reyes gets the job done, but I can’t in good conscience back him with my wallet, nor can I get myself to fade him with a play on Kimball. I think this fight is best left avoided at the sportsbook this weekend.
Gabe’s Call: Reyes by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Heavyweight bout: Justin Willis (-220) vs. Allen Crowder (+180)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think this is one of those “anything can happen” type of heavyweight fights that are purely a gamble. If you want to gamble, you’re best off taking your shot with the dog in a fight like this, but I personally think it’s one that’s left alone at the sportsbook this weekend. Though I think Crowder would be the way to go if you have to make a play, I’ll officially side with the favorite for my pick, and I think Willis is capable of getting the job done by finish or decision.
Gabe’s Call: Willis by T/KO (punches, 0:17 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Women’s Strawweight bout: Amanda Cooper (-470) vs. Angela Magana (+430)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I am not a fan of Magana’s at all but I think she is being undervalued in this wowen’s 115 pound contest. I think she holds some of value at her current offering underdog price of +430, but I can’t play or recommend anybody else to. I was hoping to get Cooper at a decent price for this bout, and it didn’t come, so now it’s either fade her or pass, so I’m going to have to pass, mostly because I don’t want to find myself rooting for Angela Magana. As for my prediction, I’ll say Cooper stuffs Magana’s takedown attempts, keeps this fight standing and oustrikes her for three one-sided rounds of action en route to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards, potentially securing a T/KO finish along the way.
Gabe’s Call: Cooper by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
