Fights to Avoid Betting for UFC Fight Night 121
UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura
Date: November 18
Arena: Qudos Bank Arena
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is heading to Sydney, Australia for the fifth time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 121: Werdum vs. Tybura. The 13-fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action at 6:30 p.m. ET on UFC Fight Pass, with the prelims continuing at 8 p.m. on FOX Sports 1 and the main card getting underway on the same channel at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
My Fights to AVOID betting are:
Welterweight bout: Jake Matthews (-145) vs. Bojan Velickovic (+125)
Gabe's Thoughts: I think Velickovic should be a slight -120 betting favorite in this 170 pound matchup, so I think he holds value at his current offering underdog price of +125. While I think he is worth playing, I am going to have to opt out of this one come Saturday night. The juice isn’t quite good enough to make the squeeze worth it for me, especially considering he just took a brutal beating at the hands of Darren Till just a couple of months ago. He took this fight without taking any time off, which is the main thing that makes me hesitant from playing him at dog money here. I can’t blame you if you did, but I have to pass. I’ll still side with him for my official pick, as I think he is capable of keeping the fight standing and outpointing Matthews on the feet for the majority of three rounds en route to picking up a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards and potentially stopping him along the way. It would not surprise me to see him employ his wrestling, either. Velickovic would need to stop the takedowns in order to win this contest, which is something he failed to do last December when he took on Sultan Aliev in Sacramento. He was outwrestled for three rounds in a decision loss. The same could happen here, but I give the edge to Velickovic in this one.
Gabe's Call: Velickovic by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID
Heavyweight bout: Adam Wieczorek (-155) vs. Anthony Hamilton (+135)
Gabe's Thoughts: The last time around, I thought Wieczorek would hand Hamilton another first round knockout loss, but the fight was canceled and has since been rescheduled for this card, and I am no longer so sure. I still think it’s probably the most likely outcome here, considering how easily Hamilton went down against Daniel Spitz only a couple of months ago, but there is no way I can put my money behind Wieczorek, especially in what is his UFC debut. There’s obviously no way I could back Hamilton with my wallet, either. I don’t see how anybody could confidently make a play one way or another in this contest. You may be wanting to simply fade Hamilton, as I did, but after further consideration, I have decided to sit this one out.
Gabe's Call: Hamilton by Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID