Fights to Avoid Betting at UFC Fight Night 120


UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis
Date: November 11
Arena: Ted Constant Convocation Center
City: Norfolk, VA

The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is heading to Norfolk, VA for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 120: Poirier vs. Pettis. The stacked 13-fight card is set to kick off with prelims on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET. Preliminary action will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., with the main card getting going on the same channel at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at 5Dimes Sportsbook.

My Fights to AVOID betting are:

Lightweight bout: Anthony Pettis (-125) vs. Dustin Poirier (+105)

Gabe's Thoughts: I agree with the current betting odds in that this is more or less a coin-flip matchup in the UFC’s 155 pound division. Pettis is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jim Miller in his return to the weight class, while Poirier is coming off a No Contest against Eddie Alvarez. This is a very exciting matchup at 155-pounds and I find it hard to pick a downright winner. At the current odds, I see no betting value in either fighter, so I think this bout is best left alone at the sportsbook this weekend. It will be the front runner for the evening’s ‘Fight of the Night’ bonus, so perhaps it would fit best to just sit back and enjoy this main event, hopefully wrapping up a very profitable evening.

Gabe's Call: Poirier by Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)

Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID

Heavyweight bout: Junior Albini (-280) vs. Andrei Arlovski (+240)

Gabe's Thoughts: I think Arlovski holds value at his current asking price of +240, considering how inexperienced Albini is. Albini was a big underdog against Timothy Johnson, who he defeated by knockout, and he is now a big favorite over Arlovski. If he were facing Arlovski instead of Johnson in his UFC debut, I think he would have been the underdog there, as well. I can’t fault anybody for playing Arlovski here, as I think he has a decent chance to win. However, I personally can’t get myself to pull the trigger, because while I do think the fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest, I do think Albini comes out on top with an another impressive performance. It is also worth noting that Arlovski is coming off four straight losses and has his back against the wall heading into this one. I see this fight as a dog or pass situation and I am ultimately going to opt to pass. It’s best to skip this heavyweight showdown at the sportsbook this weekend.

Gabe's Call: Albini by T/KO (punches, 0:22 round 1)

Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID

Tags: betting preview, Fight Preview

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About the Author

Gabe Killian

Gabe Killian

Gabe Killian is a mixed martial arts journalist and handicapper, as well as a stand-up comedian and writer.
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