Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look ahead to the co-main event of UFC 217 as Cody Garbrandt defends his bantamweight championship against TJ Dillashaw in Las Vegas, Nevada.
TJ Dillashaw (Record: 14-3, +160 Underdog, Power Ranking: A+)
The former collegiate wrestler turned MMA fighter had trained at Team Alpha Male before heading to Colorado to join Striking Coach Duane Ludwig full time. Dillashaw made significant strides in his striking while training under Ludwig which elevated him to an elite level. Dillashaw is coming off clear decision wins over fellow top ten bantamweights Raphael Assuncao and John Lineker.
Under the tutelage of Duane Ludwig, there aren’t many fighters who have improved as much in the past few years as TJ Dillashaw. He averages a whopping 5.38 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.94 strikes per minute. That difference of 2.44 strikes per minute is one of the highest in the UFC and translates to a 61 strike difference over the course of a 15 minute fight. Dillashaw’s game has evolved into a great blend of aggressive, volume combination striking. Ludwig has done a terrific job at turning Dillashaw into a great MMA striker and into an elite fighter in this sport. Dillashaw matches that striking prowess with a collegiate wrestling pedigree. He averages 1.8 takedowns per 15 minutes in the Octagon and has secured takedowns in his last three bouts. This is a tremendously important fight for Dillashaw as he has a history with Cody Garbrandt dating back to his days training together with him at Team Alpha Male.
Cody Garbrandt (Record: 11-0, -185 Favorite, Power Ranking: A+)
The Ohio-born-and-raised Garbrandt was a high school wrestling standout winning a state championship in his freshman year. Garbrandt has been fighting professionally for nearly five years. He has won all 11 fights in his professional career and comes off by far the biggest win of his career getting the best of Dominick Cruz in a decision victory.
In addition to his wrestling accolades, Garbrandt was an accomplished amateur boxer with a 32-1 career record. He started his career in Ohio, but he made a big decision to move west in 2014 and train at Team Alpha Male. That decision completely changed his career path as he would go on to have daily training with some of the top fighters in the world including the fighter he is defending his title against at UFC 217. That tremendously built his confidence and his all-around game. Garbrandt has successfully landed 38% of his takedown attempts in the UFC with over one takedown per 15 minutes in the octagon. Furthermore, he’s never been taken down in his UFC career with 100% takedown defense. He combines his wrestling prowess that with a boxing focused striking attack in which he lands 3.58 significant strikes per minute, while only absorbing 3.04 strikes per minute. His striking prowess is near the top of the division in punching power with nine of his eleven career wins by knockout. For Garbrandt, it comes down to power. He believes he punches harder than the rest of the division. His power forces opponents to fight more tentative and more on the back foot. In his bout with Cruz, he showed tremendous head movement avoiding much of the punches from the volume heavy former champion.
Matchup
In an excellent co-main event, Cody Garbrandt defends his bantamweight title against former teammate TJ Dillashaw. In addition to the bad blood between the two fighters, it really is a fight between two extremely skilled bantamweights that are at their fighting peaks. Having gotten their roots at Team Alpha Male, they both have similar games. They both have very good hands, while employing solid wrestling techniques. The main difference between them is their approach on the feet. Dillashaw is more of a combination striker, while Garbrandt is more of a knockout artist. I expect this fight to be fought on the feet with each fighter keen to show who the best striker is in the division. With Garbrandt being so young, he’s prone to significant improvement between fights. In just his last bout with Dominick Cruz, he did what no other fighter has been able to do in the UFC and that is out strike the former champion. I think this bout comes down to the difference in power between the two fighters. Garbrandt has the ability to change the complexion of this fight with one punch. It could be close early in the fight and perhaps Dillashaw wins the first round, but as the fight extends into the later rounds, Garbrandt’s punching power will begin to take effect. Look for Garbrandt to take control of the fight and win a decision on the scorecards. Garbrandt is currently lined -185 and that is a bit steep for a moneyline play on a competitive fight that is likely to go to the scorecards. If he falls below -145, then it would be worth consideration. A better price is available on fight goes to decision (-140). Unless the line drops on Garbrandt, I’ll be looking at the fight goes the distance prop.
