UFC Fight Night 119: Machida vs. Brunson
Date: October 28
Arena: Ibiriapuera Gymnasium
City: Sau Paulo, Brazil
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed to Gdasnk, Poland for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till. The 12 fight card gets going with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 7 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 2 at 8 p.m. and the main card will kick off on FOX Sports 1 at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
My Fights to AVOID betting are:
Welterweight bout: Vicente Luque (-130) vs. Niko Price (+110)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with the current betting odds in that this is a more or less a coin-flip matchup. I think Price is more likely to finish the fight, whereas I think Luque is more likely to win on the’ scorecards. I see this fight coming down to the third and final round, where I expect Price to be the fresher fighter of the two. I see Luque winning the first two rounds, so Price would be searching for the finish in the third. There is a chance he may get it, but I am leaning towards Luque surviving to see a victory on the judges’ scorecards. It would not surprise me to see Price take over in the second round and end up earning the decision, though I do think the Brazilian is the more likely party to take home a decision win, especially in his native Brazil.
Gabe’s Call: Luque by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Flyweight bout: Jarred Brooks (-185) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+160)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Both fighters are 1-0 in the UFC’s 125-pound division and will be looking to remain unbeaten inside the Octagon when they square off against each other this Saturday night in Figueiredo’s backyard of Brazil, where he will have the home advantage. I think Brooks should be a -150 betting favorite in this matchup, so I see no betting value in him for this bout at -185, nor do I think the Brazilian is worth a shot at his current offering price of +160. I think this is a matchup that is best left avoided at the sportsbook this weekend.
Gabe’s Call: Brooks by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
