Free UFC 162 Picks: Edson Barboza (-550) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (+425)
MGM Grand Gardena Arena, Las Vegas, NV
Saturday, July 6, 2013
Lightweight bout: Edson Barboza (-550) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (+425)
Fight Breakdown: One of the featured prelim bouts at UFC 162 is a lightweight matchup between Edson Barboza and Rafaello Oliveira. Barboza is currently a -550 favorite (bet $550 to win $100), while the comeback on Oliveira is +425 (bet $100 to win $425) at 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Barboza (11-1) is one of the best strikers in the UFC as he has an absolutely deadly muay Thai attack that has led him to collect an impressive 5-1 record inside the Octagon, including a "Knockout of the Year" performance against Terry Etim at UFC 142 for his spinnin wheel kick KO. The 27-year-old was well on his way to making a run for the title but he was shockingly knocked out by Jamie Varner at UFC 146 and now he has to rebuild himself. Training with Frankie Edgar with his wrestling now, look for Barboza to be able to keep this fight with Oliveira standing and in the standup department it's pretty clear who the superior fighter is, so Oliveira has to get the fight to the floor to win.
Oliveira (15-5) is primarily a grappler but he hasn't really lived up to his potential as he has a very mediocre 2-4 record in the UFC and is likely fighting for his job in this matchup. The 31-year-old hasn't fought since UFC 148 one year ago, and that's always a red flag, but the biggest red flag is Oliveira's mediocre chin as he's been knocked down and knocked out on multiple occasions. Yes, Oliveira does have good BJJ but his wrestling is pretty average and against a guy like Barboza who has strong hips, Oliveira's going to have to work extra hard to get the fight to the ground. But unfortunately for Oliveira, I don't think he'll be able to and instead he'll have to fight a striking match against one of the best in the business.
Fight Prediction: Oliveira is a BJJ fighter but Barboza has outstanding takedown defence and this fight is likely to take place standing. And in the standup there really is no question as to who has the advantage as Barboza is one of the best strikers in the world -- at any weight class -- and Oliveira has a bad chin. Look for Barboza to land a highlight-reel head kick knockout on Oliveira as he continues his march up the lightweight ladder and look for him to do so in the first two rounds.
Adam's Pick: Barboza via T/KO (click for latest MMA odds)
Adam's Recommended Play: I really like Barboza to win this fight by knockout so I'll definitely recommend to bet him in parlays as well as inside the distance if the line presents sold value. Additionally, I believe Barboza will be in the running for the "Knockout of the Night" award so if that prop is available at decent plus money (anything +500 and up), take a stab at it.