UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till
Date: October 21
Arena: Ergo Arena
City: Gdasnk, Poland
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed to Gdasnk, Poland for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till. The 12 fight card will be broadcast entirely on UFC Fight Pass, with preliminary action kicking off at 11:45 a.m. ET and the main card getting going at 3 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
My Fights to AVOID betting are:
Lightweight bout: Marcin Held (-440) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+350)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Held is on a three fight losing streak inside the Octagon, and he has had quite the bad luck on that run. The first loss came via unanimous decision to Diego Sanchez in Mexico City, and his cardio at elevation was the culprit there. His next time out, he clearly got the better of Joe Lauzon, but ended up losing a head-scratching split decision on the judges’ scorecards. Lauzon himself admitted he lost the fight in his in-cage post-fight interview. In his most recent outing, he was handily beating Damir Hadzovic until getting caught with a step-in knee at the start of the third and final round of action. Now on a three fight skid, Held certainly has his back against the wall heading into this one in front of his home crowd against short notice promotional newcomer Nasrat. I think this fight is closer than the betting odds currently suggest, and at these odds, I do think we are looking at a dog or pass situation. I am ultimately opting to pass on playing the dog here, as I think this is a fight best left avoiding at the sportsbooks this Saturday. Held is being over-valued at the current price, but he should come away with the win here and save his spot on the UFC’s 155-pound roster.
Gabe’s Call: Held by Submission (heel hook, 1:04 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Middleweight bout: Oskar Picheota (-185) vs. Jonathan Wilson (+160)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Wilson is dropping down to the UFC’s 185-pound division for this contest and likely has his back against the wall as he welcomes Polish promotional newcomer Picheota. I think Picheota should be a -140 betting favorite in this contest, so I see no betting value in him at the current odds. I can’t fault anybody for taking a stab on the dog Wilson at +160, but for me, this fight is going to have to be a pass. I am curious as to how Wilson will look at middleweight, so there are certainly some question marks surrounding him heading into this matchup.
Gabe’s Call: Picheota by T/KO (punches, 3:46 round 3)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
