UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till
Date: October 21
Arena: Ergo Arena
City: Gdasnk, Poland
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is headed to Gdasnk, Poland for the first time in promotional history with UFC Fight Night 118: Cerrone vs. Till. The 12 fight card will be broadcast entirely on UFC Fight Pass, with preliminary action kicking off at 11:45 a.m. ET and the main card getting going at 3 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
Here are my plays…
Heavyweight bout: Adam Wieczorek (-135) vs. Anthony Hamilton (+115)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Hamilton is stepping on short notice for an injured Dmitry Smoliakov, and he is making a quick turnaround following a first round knockout against Daniel Spitz. It is too soon of a turnaround for Hamilton, in my opinion, especially considering he did not take much time off taking the Spitz fight prior to getting knocked out by Marcel Fortuna in the fight before that. Hamilton is on his way out and I think Wieczorek sends him into retirement with another first round stoppage. He is very tough to pass up at -135, as he is arguably better than the previous two fighters who knocked out Hamilton this year. Rather than taking Wieczorek straight up, I am opting to take the Total of Under 1.5 rounds at -140, which is nearly the same price. I think taking the Under is safer than playing him straight, because I think he wins by early knockout the majority of the time, and should he come out on the losing end, it would likely be by early finish, as well. This is a heavyweight contest, after all, and all it could take is one punch from “Freight Train” for this show to be a wrap. I’m fairly confident Wieczorek gets the job done, but the Under is the play that holds more value.
Gabe’s Call: Wieczorek by T/KO (punches, 1:46 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 1.5 rounds (-140)
Bantamweight bout: Brian Kelleher (-120) vs. Damian Stasiak (+100)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I agree with the betting odds in that this is more or less a coin-flip matchup in the UFC’s 135-pound division. That is why I see no betting value on either fighter. However, I do think the Total of Under 2.5 rounds at +170 holds a good amount of value, because I see this fight ending inside the distance 55-60% of the time. Getting close to 2-to-1 dog odds for the under is a gift here. Sure, I think the fight also stands a good chance of hitting the judges’ scorecards for a decision (40-45%) but I believe the value is with the under. Both Kelleher and Stasiak are finishers who look for opportunities for the finish, and I think one of them will likely find it in this contest. I think Stasiak has more finishing tools in his arsenal, so I will be siding with him for my official pick, though I am not at all counting out “Boom” Kelleher in this contest.
Gabe’s Call: Stasiak by Submission (triangle-armbar, 4:03 round 2)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: Under 2.5 rounds (+170)
