UFC 216
Date: October 7th
Arena: T-Mobile Arena
City: Las Vegas, NV
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Las Vegas, NV with UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee. The 12-fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., with the main card getting going on on Pay Per View at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
My Fights to AVOID betting are:
Interim-Lightweight title bout: Tony Ferguson (-220) vs. Kevin Lee (+180)
Gabe’s Thoughts: I think Ferguson should be a -180 betting favorite heading into this lightweight interim title fight, so I don’t see any betting value in him at his current offering price of -220. The current odds suggest to me that this is a “dog or pass” situation, and I am going to have to pass on playing Lee here. The fight starts on the feet, where I think Ferguson will be at a massive advantage. He has heavy hands and Lee has a questionable chin, so I think Ferguson by T/KO is the most likely outcome to this five round main event interim title fight. That said, I think Lee winning by decision is the second most likely outcome, because if he finds success with his wrestling, I think he will manage to keep Ferguson on his back long enough to edge out rounds on the eyes of the judges’ at Octagon-side. I think the third most likely outcome to this bout is Ferguson winning by submission, and the fourth Ferguson by decision. It would not surprise me to see Lee find a finish in this contest, however I think the odds of it are slim. To conclude, I do think this is a matchup in which Ferguson gets his hand raised more times than not, however I can’t justify playing him at -220 against a fighter who I see having a clear route to victory. At the current odds, I think this is main event is best left avoided; perhaps just sit back and enjoy this one to close out the night… the hopefully very profitable night!
Gabe’s Call: Ferguson by T/KO (punches, 0:48 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
Lightweight bout: Beneil Dariush (-230) vs. Evan Dunham (+190)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Dariush looks to rebound from a devastating second round knockout loss against Edson Barboza against Dunham, who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Rick Glenn. This is an excellent matchup in the UFC’s 155-pound division, and I do agree with Dariush being the betting favorite here, however I don’t quite agree with his current asking price of -230, as I think he should be a -160 betting favorite here. The current odds suggest that this is a “dog or pass” situation, and after giving it a good amount of thought, I have opted to take a pass on playing the dog and recommend you avoid this scrap at the sportsbook come Saturday night.
Gabe’s Call: Dunham by Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Gabe’s Recommended Play: AVOID
