UFC 216
Date: October 7th
Arena: T-Mobile Arena
City: Las Vegas, NV
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back in Las Vegas, NV with UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee. The 13-fight card is scheduled to kick off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 6:15 p.m. ET. Prelims will continue on FOX Sports 1 at 8 p.m., with the main card getting going on on Pay Per View at 10 p.m. If interested in wagering on any bouts for these fight cards, all betting lines are made available at Several Bookmakers.
Here is my parlay:
Heavyweight bout: Fabricio Werdum (-255) vs. Derrick Lewis (+215)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Either Lewis knocks out Werdum or Werdum submits him. Those are the two ways everybody sees this fight playing out, including myself. It is hard to imagine any other outcome here, but the odds do not reflect that, because instead of the Total being set at 1.5 rounds, it is at 2.5 rounds, and the line is at -140. I think the Under 1.5 rounds should have been -210, and I think the Under 2.5 rounds should be -330, which means I think the current line offers great value. This is a big fight for both heavyweights, as Werdum believes an impressive win will earn him a shot at the UFC heavyweight title that once belonged to him, and Lewis needs a big victory to put him back in relevancy following his short lived retirement.
Gabe’s Call: Lewis by T/KO (punches, 1:20 round 1)
Lightweight bout: Will Brooks (-365) vs. Nik Lentz (+305)
Gabe’s Thoughts: Brooks is coming off back to back losses to Alex Oliveira and Charles Oliveira, being finished by both Brazilians, and he will desperately be looking to bounce back into the win column with an impressive performance against Lentz, who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Islam Makhachev. This is a grappler versus grappler matchup between two wrestlers, and I think Brooks is the better wrestler of the two in MMA, and I see his size and strength advantage benefiting him in this contest, especially in the grappling exchanges. Lentz is tough to put away, but I think this is a good spot for Brooks to pick up a stoppage victory. I do see this as being Brooks fight to lose, so if he fails to secure the finish, I think he will cruise to a unanimous decision victory on the judges’ scorecards.
Gabe’s Call: Brooks by T/KO (punches, 4:31 round 1)
Gabe’s Recommended Parlay: Werdum/Lewis Under 2.5 rounds (-140) and Brooks (-365) at +118
