Prior to each UFC fight card, Jay Primetown takes a look at some of the key contests at each event. In the latest installment, we look at the main event of UFC 216 as Americans Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee square off for the interim lightweight title. For both fighters it is their first chance at UFC gold.
Tony Ferguson (Record: 23-3, -220 Favorite, Power Ranking: A+)
The 33-year-old 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu fighter is on perhaps the best run of form in UFC lightweight history. He’s won a whopping nine fights in a row with six of those wins coming by stoppage. His most impressive victory came in his last bout when he outclassed former champion Rafael dos Anjos to a five round decision.
Tony Ferguson has become one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. He hasn’t been given the platform of some of the sport’s most entertaining fighters yet, but he has been given that opportunity as a headliner at UFC 216. In recent fights, Ferguson has really upped his work rate. In just his last four bouts alone, Ferguson has landed over seven strikes per minute; a rate higher than any fighter has averaged over his or her entire career in the organization. In addition to being volume heavy, Ferguson attacks opponents with the kitchen sink. He has no fear about coming at opponents from different angles. He’ll throw a jab and overhand, but he’ll also mix in a variety of elbows, kicks, and knees. Furthermore, he’s not afraid to be hit. In fact, he often is more ruthless and focused once he’s hit on the feet. Ferguson can be defined as a predator. Once he senses an opponent is vulnerable, he’ll heavily seek out the finish. In addition to a dangerous striking game, he’s an excellent submission grappler. Off his back, Ferguson has one of the most dangerous triangles in MMA. He also has an excellent D’arce choke. Going to the mat with Ferguson is as dangerous as getting into a prolonged striking contest with him.
Kevin Lee (Record: 16-2, +180 Underdog, Power Ranking: B)
The 25-year-old Grand Rapids, Michigan-born Motown Phenom is one of the fastest rising fighters in the lightweight division. Lee is riding a five fight winning streak including three straight submission wins. In his last bout, Lee submitted specialist Michael Chiesa in the first round of Lee’s first ever UFC main event.
Lee has quickly become one of the best prospects in the lightweight division. He has a decent standup game landing 41% of his significant strikes at 3.60 strikes per minute. However, where he has really risen his game is his wrestling. Lee has developed into an excellent wrestler. He’s now suffocated his last few opponents taking fighters to the mat with relative ease. Overall, Lee has earned takedowns in 10 of his 11 UFC bouts. Lee secures a whopping 3.48 takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage which is among the highest in the division. His physicality has become a real strength for him as looks to keep improving and become the top fighter in this weight class.
Matchup
A very interesting matchup pits Tony Ferguson and Kevin Lee in an interim title match to headline UFC 216. Both fighters are riding high confidence with a combined 14 straight wins between the two fighters. While Ferguson is comfortable in nearly every facet of this bout, the mission is clear for Kevin Lee. The Motown Phenom will need to get the fight to the mat. He’s at his best in top position where he can work in ground and pound. From there he’s very good at seeking out submission opportunities. However, this is really his first matchup since he rose to prominence where he’s facing a fighter with an excellent who will threaten with submissions. I wouldn’t be surprised for Lee to secure a takedown in the first and to win the round, but will find difficulty having too much success on the ground. As the fight extends on, Ferguson’s constant pressure and pace will slow Lee down. As Lee slows down, I expect Ferguson to take over the bout. Lee’s been vulnerable on the feet in previous fights and will be under a deluge in this bout. It’s hard to see Lee surviving 25 minutes with Ferguson given his slowdown in recent bouts. Ferguson (-220) is worth consideration, but an even better play is Ferguson ITD (-120). Lee’s vulnerabilities and Ferguson’s ability to turn up the volume in this bout makes that a strong consideration for this fight card.
